Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS MOST OF THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE GULF COAST PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST.
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
BASED ON LATEST TREND TOWARD ELEVATED CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LOOKING AT 00Z HI-RES WRF OUTPUT...AND WILL TRIM
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK TO THESE AREAS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THE RISK FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED EAST OF I-55 BY 8-9AM...WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY PASSING EAST INTO AL BY 12-2PM. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZY TODAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE DELTA-UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW AREAS NORTH OF I-20 SAW SOME SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER ONLY VERY LIGHT(IF ANY)
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR HIGHS...HOWEVER A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY MORNING. /BK/

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HIT ON A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING AS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS THE
DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES ON SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO RAPIDLY WARM
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BOTH SOME
TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THIS NEXT SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT
SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE A RUN ON THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN EACH MODELS' SOLUTION...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...I'LL KEEP THE CURRENT BLURB IN THE HWO CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
BY 14Z...AND COMPLETELY OUT OF CENTRAL MS 17-19Z. THERES A CHANCE A
FEW SHWRS/TSTMS MAY PERSIST NEAR HBG UNTIL LATE AFTN...BUT THIS
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL BE PSBL THRU THE AFTN. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH WDSPRD MVFR/OCSNL IFR
CONDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  44  65  48 /  49  13  10  12
MERIDIAN      65  45  66  44 /  73  14  14  15
VICKSBURG     64  43  65  50 /  24  12   7   7
HATTIESBURG   70  50  70  48 /  76  14   9   5
NATCHEZ       62  42  65  51 /  24  12   7   1
GREENVILLE    57  42  61  50 /  11  12  20  27
GREENWOOD     60  40  62  48 /  24  12  16  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ060>066-
     072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/19

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

MSZ062>065-300645-
COVINGTON MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
116 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES EAST OF WANILLA
TO RUTH AT 116 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND WEST
CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3135 9011 3136 9040 3149 9022 3167 9012
      3167 8969 3150 8974 3139 8990 3140 9003
      3134 9004 3134 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 269DEG 25KT 3164 9005 3150 9011
          3137 9027

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

MSZ062>065-300700-
COVINGTON MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
129 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM HEBRON TO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA AT 129 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAWRENCE...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
AND WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 9026 3155 9004 3176 9003 3179 8949
      3159 8948 3144 8966 3144 8982 3139 8982
      3140 9003 3134 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 266DEG 33KT 3173 8993 3156 8994
          3140 9012

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

MSZ064-065-072-300740-
COVINGTON MS-MARION MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
200 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF LONE
STAR TO SOCIETY HILL AT 201 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHERN MARION AND COVINGTON
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3130 9001 3154 8985 3175 8985 3179 8956
      3180 8940 3160 8940 3143 8951 3144 8965
      3135 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 260DEG 24KT 3168 8974 3156 8974
          3140 8985

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

MSZ074-300835-
FORREST MS-
315 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN PETAL
AND BROOKLYN AT 314 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3101 8925 3124 8929 3130 8915 3103 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 256DEG 34KT 3112 8916

MRM

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