Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...HEAVY RAINS RETURNING TO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN...GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COUPLE SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A
WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST FOR A ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL GET AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF PCPN MAXES. THE MORNING JAN
SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT CAP AND WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THE
WARM UP TODAY HAS BEEN SLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL HAS THE WARM
FRONT WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AT MID AFTERNOON NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. REGIONAL RADARS WERE STARTING TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 UNTIL 10
PM. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO HELP CONVECTION INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA WHILE ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA BY
NOON MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO AN AREA JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO
FOUR INCHES IN A SHORT TIME FARTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WE
WL CONTINUE OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
AND THE RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT YET
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN
WITH A MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
LEAST CONFIDENCE WAS IN THE GEM WHICH SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF REALLY ONLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SINCE
BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF STALLS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
SATURDAY BEFORE WAVING IT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT HUGE HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD TEND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END POPS IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL OMIT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE BETTER
PERFORMING ECMWF IN THE LONGER RANGE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE PROGRESSION TO A MEAN TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE ECMWF INDICATING LOWER 70S DEW POINTS BEING PULLED NORTH ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MON OR TUE. THIS
WILL DEFINITELY BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...DEGRADING FLIGHT CATS LOCALLY DOWN TO
IFR WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND EXTREME TURBULENCE. EXPECT MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG (MAINLY IFR)
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OFF AFTER THE SUN COMES UP. ANTICIPATED LIGHT
TO MODERATE SURFACE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TO
TRANSITION AROUND THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  67  46  66 /  99  58  21  14
MERIDIAN      58  69  43  66 / 100  65  20  18
VICKSBURG     53  64  45  67 /  97  41  24  12
HATTIESBURG   65  75  52  70 /  93  74  37  11
NATCHEZ       55  62  45  67 /  96  52  34   8
GREENVILLE    50  62  41  63 /  97  23  16  20
GREENWOOD     50  64  41  64 / 100  36  16  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BK/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>041-302030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BETWEEN 5 PM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NEAR AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR EAST
OF THE AREA OF INTEREST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ042>054-059-060-302030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED
HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLEARS TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ055>058-061>066-072>074-302030-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN RISK WILL
BE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OF 65
MPH...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SHORT BURSTS
WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM
5 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A RETURNING
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
BEFORE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
639 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 SSE MANGHAM           32.29N 91.76W
03/29/2011  E0.88 INCH       RICHLAND           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             CASEYVILLE              31.67N 90.66W
03/29/2011  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   PUBLIC

            HAIL RANGED FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
708 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             12 SW HAZLEHURST        31.74N 90.54W
03/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
723 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             2 S NEWELLTON           32.04N 91.24W
03/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 65 BY LAW ENFORCEMENT TO EMERGENCY
            MANAGER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
728 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             CRYSTAL SPRINGS         31.99N 90.36W
03/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       COPIAH             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             7 W ROCKY SPRINGS       32.08N 90.93W
03/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       CLAIBORNE          MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED SOUTH OF VICKSBURG ALONG THE WARREN AND
            CLAIBORNE COUNTY LINE

&&

DL