Severe Thunderstorm Warning 556, NWS Jackson, MS

457 
WWUS54 KJAN 122142
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSC089-163-122215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0556.000000T0000Z-110712T2215Z/
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
442 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YAZOO AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FLORA MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

AT 427 PM...LOCAL LAW ENFORECEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES AND POWER 
LINES DOWNED IN THE CITY OF FLORA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
TINSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 9055 3274 9024 3248 9024 3249 9044
      3251 9045 3256 9045 3254 9048 3254 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 080DEG 5KT 3252 9034

$$

DL

231 
WWUS54 KJAN 122210
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSC089-163-122220-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0556.000000T0000Z-110712T2215Z/
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YAZOO AND WEST
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3274 9055 3274 9024 3248 9024 3249 9044
      3251 9045 3256 9045 3254 9048 3254 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 080DEG 5KT 3251 9039

$$

DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN A SLIGHTLY EARLIER
START THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN PREV...ALSO THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED
MORE INTENSITY EARLIER AS WELL. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE ~4000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT TAME
AND THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH OUT OF HAND.
HOWEVER...DCAPE IS RATHER HIGH WITH 1000-1200 J/KG AND CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITH SFC TEMPS 98-100 DEGREES. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM AND ALL THIS SUPPORTS STORMS WITH
RATHER GUSTY WINDS IN THE 50-65 MPH RANGE. EXPECT SEVERAL STRONG
STORMS TODAY WITH A HANDFUL OF BRIEFLY SVR STORMS CONTAINING DMG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD TOTAL
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES.

FOR THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE BETWEEN 7-9 PM.
FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS GUID POPS WHICH INDICATE ROUGHLY 20%
AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AND FALL INTO
THE MID 70S. GUID SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW.

FOR WED...BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
INITIAL FOCUS. BASED OFF THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND VALUES OF THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS...SEE NO REASON WHY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA WILL NOT HIT THE 98-100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE VERY HIGH AND THE RESULTING HEAT INDEX (HI)
WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 110 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADV FOR THE N HALF OF THE AREA INTO WED. THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE
MORE OF A CHALLENGE. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE WORKED OVER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE BETTER PRECIP
POTENTIAL ON WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM GETTING TOO
HOT...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...IT HAS HEATED UP SO
QUICKLY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RH...HI'S GET ABV 105 FAIRLY
EARLY. THE PLAN IS TO LEAVE THE S HALF OUT OF THE HEAT ADV AS ANY
AREA THAT HITS CRITERIA MAY ONLY DO SO FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA WED...THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN FURTHER AND THE AREA WILL HAVE 30DM LOWER MID LEVEL HGHTS.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT
OVER THAT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES. COMBINE
THIS WITH 2.2 IN PWATS AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE BETTER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. SIMILAR STUFF EXISTS ON THU AS FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO KEEP THE ABV AVG
PRECIP POTENTIAL GOING. ACTUALLY...THE EURO SUGGESTS THU WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNED...THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS STRANGE WORKINGS AND HITTING
THE POPS HARDEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I DON'T BUY THIS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS FOR THE DAY PERIOD (AFTERNOON) AND LOWER
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS WED/THU AS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE A DECENT CHANCE EACH DAY AS SFC TEMP/DEWPTS COMBOS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 3500-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. OVERALL LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE REAL IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME OF THE GUID IS INDICATING
THAT THE N HALF WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES
WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THAT AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST RISK
FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS TOMORROW AFTN. DMG WINDS WILL THE MAIN RISK
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING AND BRIEF HEAVY PRECIP. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP...A QUICK 1-3
INCHES COULD OCCUR. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VIS TO BE REDUCED
DOWN TO 1SM AT TIMES IN HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS BUT ACTUAL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS OF
40-65 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. STORM TOPS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 35
TO 45 KFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEFORE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
REDUCES VIS DOWN TO 4-5 SM IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  75  96 /  17  52  21  59
MERIDIAN      74  96  73  96 /  19  47  21  61
VICKSBURG     74  98  73  96 /  15  52  23  54
HATTIESBURG   75  97  76  97 /  23  58  24  62
NATCHEZ       74  93  74  94 /  22  58  23  57
GREENVILLE    77  99  76  97 /  17  39  23  44
GREENWOOD     75  98  74  95 /  18  41  23  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>047.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ029>033.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ029>033.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ048>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023-025.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ024-026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>047-131830-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
128 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
REGION REACHING UP TO 115 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH HEAT STRESS IF OUTDOORS FOR EVEN SHORT
DURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW BUT STILL HOT
AS A HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF I-55
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL EXIST BETWEEN 3-9PM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE LATER EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS OF 50 AND 65 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ048>066-072>074-131830-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
128 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
75 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME
HEAT. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT
DURING THIS TIME. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 8 PM...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 AND 65 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING SEVERE. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N TAYLORSVILLE        31.87N 89.43W
07/12/2011                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN ALONG CR 19.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E UTICA               32.10N 90.55W
07/12/2011                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            SOME TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN EAST OF UTICA.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/12/2011                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL RDS FLOODED AROUND THE HOSPITAL AND ON BOARD ST
            TO HUTCHINSON AVE.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSZ052-122140-
LAUDERDALE MS-
409 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER TOOMSUBA AT 409 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3222 8861 3222 8866 3236 8882 3256 8855
      3243 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 046DEG 12KT 3243 8855

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSZ052-122140-
LAUDERDALE MS-
412 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOOMSUBA AT 412
PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3233 8877 3256 8876 3252 8843 3234 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 092DEG 9KT 3244 8856

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ARZ074-LAZ007-122145-
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-
418 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSSETT AT 417 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS SITUATED OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3322 9209 3328 9204 3331 9198 3334 9200
      3337 9197 3339 9200 3341 9199 3340 9182
      3290 9167 3289 9209 3301 9208 3303 9212
      3308 9214 3315 9211 3316 9214 3319 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 333DEG 5KT 3307 9189

DL