Severe Thunderstorm Warning 546, NWS Jackson, MS

266 
WWUS54 KJAN 121848
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSC069-099-121858-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0546.000000T0000Z-110712T1900Z/
NESHOBA MS-KEMPER MS-
148 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN KEMPER AND
NORTHEASTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3294 8912 3305 8915 3318 8882 3302 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 150DEG 7KT 3309 8897

$$

MSC159-121900-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0546.000000T0000Z-110712T1900Z/
WINSTON MS-
148 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WINSTON COUNTY...

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CENTER RIDGE
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3294 8912 3305 8915 3318 8882 3302 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 150DEG 7KT 3309 8897

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY...

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
WARM/SOUPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED TO THE HOURLY TEMPS ALONG WITH ADJ TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THAT CLOUD FEATURE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS. PRECIP INITIATION WILL WAIT AS WELL UNTIL ROUGHLY 1 PM AND HAVE
ADJ THE WX TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES
OUR TEMP/DEWPT FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE AS ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE A
RARE COMBO OF HIGH TEMPS/HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH HEAT
INDEX (HI) VALUES. THE GOING HEAT ADV LOOKS GOOD WITH HI'S PEAKING
BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. THE FAR NE IS WHERE
THE EX HEAT WARN IS IN EFFECT AND THEY ARE ALSO ON TRACK FOR HI'S OF
110-114 DEGREES.

AS FOR STORMS POTENTIAL TODAY...THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
IS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. I
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED POPS UPWARD
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO FOLLOW THE LATEST GUID AND HI-RES OUTPUT.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP IS DECENT AND SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS AND A FEW SVR AS WELL. THERE ARE NOT ANY HIGHER END TYPE
PARAMETERS AS LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER TAME. WHAT IS FAVORABLE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CAPE ~4000 J/KG AS THE COMBINATION OF UPPER 90S
TEMPS AND MID 70S DEWPTS COULD YIELD HIGHER VALUES IF SUCH A
COMBINATION IS REALIZED. ALSO THERE ARE AREAS OF FAIRLY HIGH DCAPE
(1000-1300 J/KG) WHICH WILL ENHANCE DOWN DRAFTS AND INCREASE THE
WIND POTENTIAL. DUE TO THIS...WILL TWEAK THE HWO TO MENTION THE RISK
FOR A FEW SVR STORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE CURRENT WORDING OF SOME
STRONG STORMS. WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH ARE THE MAIN RISKS WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A QUICK 1-2 IN TYPE
RAINS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RISK OF SLOWER MOVING
STORMS.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE HEAT ADV INTO WED FOR SOME OF THE CWA. THE OTHER FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS 3
PM TO 9-10 PM. WILL PLACE TEMPO GROUPS WITH MVFR VIS/TSRA IN TAFS
NEXT ISSUANCE FOR CNTRL/ERN/SRN SITES AND LEAVE VCTS FOR GWO/GLH AND
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. IT COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR VIS TO BE REDUCED
DOWN TO 1SM AT TIMES IN HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS BUT ACTUAL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS OF
40-60 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. STORM TOPS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 35
TO 45 KFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BEFORE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
REDUCES VIS DOWN TO 4-5 SM IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       97  75  96  75 /  46  22  48  26
MERIDIAN      97  73  95  73 /  46  29  56  28
VICKSBURG     97  75  97  73 /  40  17  48  30
HATTIESBURG   97  75  95  75 /  62  23  57  31
NATCHEZ       95  75  94  75 /  46  18  52  28
GREENVILLE   100  77  97  76 /  17  21  47  34
GREENWOOD     99  76  96  75 /  20  27  47  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ029>033.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSZ029>033-121930-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
631 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 110 AND
115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE
EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
CONTINUES FOR LOWNDES...OKTIBBEHA...CLAY...CHOCTAW...AND WEBSTER
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>066-
072>074-121930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
631 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
75 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME
HEAT. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT
DURING THIS TIME. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 7 PM...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.  THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF
50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSZ038-039-045-046-121840-
WINSTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-NESHOBA MS-KEMPER MS-
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERNON AT 111 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN KEMPER...EASTERN NESHOBA...SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3263 8873 3265 8911 3309 8911 3310 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 091DEG 7KT 3296 8887

EEC