Severe Thunderstorm Warning 453, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH ANTICIPATED
MCS HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 473 UNTIL 9PM/02Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING FROM QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70MPH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID 90S SOUTH OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. IN
ADDITION TO THE HAIL AND WIND...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY OUTSIDE OF
THE MCS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS A BIT STRONGER.

EXPECT THIS MCS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND ARRIVE AROUND THE
JACKSON METRO AROUND 6PM AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. LOCAL HI-RES
WRF INDICATES THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTH AND THERE IS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE THIS
PUSHES THROUGH...QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

TOMORROWS FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS WELL SINCE THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER MCS DIVING DOWN FROM ILLINOIS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS AGAIN MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THE
MOST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AGAIN
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE
WILL THIS SYSTEM TRACK AND IF OUR AREA WILL SEE ANY AFFECTS FROM IT.
NATIONAL HI-RES WRF MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS VERY WELL BUT WILL
CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME AND POTENTIALLY BRING
SOME SMALL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GETTING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT IN
THE EAST AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADING SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...BUT RIDGE LOOKS TO REAFFIRM
ITSELF BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUNDAY.

AT MIDWEEK...NW FLOW REGIME WILL ALREADY BE IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION. THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN CAN TYPICALLY GIVE US SOME
ENHANCEMENTS TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PROVIDED WE CAN GET A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
ACTUAL RESOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE TYPE OF FEATURES IS QUITE
DIFFICULT FOR COARSE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE MODELS HANDLE THESE AS THE TIME FRAME NEARS.
ANYWAY...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...FURTHEST AWAY FROM AFFECTS OF
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH LITTLE...IFY ANY...CONVECTIVE REPRIEVE./GRG/

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFFECTING ALL TAF
LOCATIONS AT SOME POINT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 58KTS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH QUARTER
SIZED HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF HBG BY 04Z.
ELSE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL MAKE A RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH WHERE HEAVY RAINS FALL WITH THE POSSIBLE MCS. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  97  72  94 /  29  18  17  28
MERIDIAN      69  97  69  97 /  32  18  24  28
VICKSBURG     69  97  70  93 /  16  11  11  26
HATTIESBURG   72  98  71  95 /  33  18  19  11
NATCHEZ       71  96  70  92 /  16  11  12  11
GREENVILLE    73  97  73  95 /  24  12  11  29
GREENWOOD     70  97  71  95 /  32  16  18  28

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/GRG/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

MSZ018-019-025>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-141715-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO PEAK HEATING...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>061-141715-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP INTO MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARROLLTON              33.50N 89.92W
06/13/2011                   CARROLL            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 17

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VAIDEN                  33.33N 89.75W
06/13/2011                   CARROLL            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 35

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ACKERMAN                33.31N 89.17W
06/13/2011                   CHOCTAW            MS   STORM CHASER

            ROOF CAME OFF A GROCERY STORE AND WATER HAS ENTERED THE
            BUILDING.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUNFLOWER               33.55N 90.54W
06/13/2011                   SUNFLOWER          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN...TWO TREES FELL ON HOUSES

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.12N 90.05W
06/13/2011                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN HOLMES
            COUNTY...INCLUDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 AND HIGHWAY 17.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DREW                    33.81N 90.53W
06/13/2011                   SUNFLOWER          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED

&&

DL