Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Jackson, MS

443 
WWUS54 KJAN 072325
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSC007-079-089-163-080000-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-110608T0000Z/
MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-ATTALA MS-YAZOO MS-
625 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA...WESTERN LEAKE AND
EASTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CAMDEN MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHARON...CANTON...NEWPORT...CAMERON...WAY AND VAUGHAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8965 3259 8966 3257 8968 3258 8973
      3264 8973 3260 8976 3259 8985 3257 8985
      3251 8993 3253 9007 3262 9014 3270 9014
      3291 9001 3289 8997 3290 8994 3297 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 125DEG 9KT 3271 8987

$$

DHB

209 
WWUS54 KJAN 072350
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSC007-079-163-080001-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-110608T0000Z/
LEAKE MS-ATTALA MS-YAZOO MS-
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL YAZOO...
SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA AND WESTERN LEAKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3260 8976 3259 8985 3257 8985 3256 8987
      3256 8988 3252 8993 3268 9010 3278 9000
      3284 8998 3287 8992 3287 8974 3264 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 125DEG 9KT 3275 8993

$$

MSC089-080000-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-110608T0000Z/
MADISON MS-
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 651 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CAMDEN MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAMERON

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3260 8976 3259 8985 3257 8985 3256 8987
      3256 8988 3252 8993 3268 9010 3278 9000
      3284 8998 3287 8992 3287 8974 3264 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 125DEG 9KT 3275 8993

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SWIRL AROUND AN MCV MOVING WEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRIME DAYTIME HEATING TO SET
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THEY TRACK WEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AT HATTIESBURG
AND JACKSON THAT WAS HELPING FUEL THE CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL POINTS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS HAVING THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED IN THE NORTH.
LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLISTS SHOWED FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE STORMS TRAIN SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A COL JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA AND A WEAKENING OF ITS GRIP ON OUR CWA. THE TUTT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING CARRIED IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT AGAIN SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME IN
CLOSE WITH HIGHS 93-95F AT MOST SITES. COME THURSDAY WL HAVE A
WEAKENED RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CWA WITH THE TUTT AXIS IN THE GULF
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE GULF STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST AND LIMIT
DEEP MOISTURE TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. AM ANTICIPATING LESS CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE BETTER
HEATING THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPOSITE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIDGING WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATE FRIDAY AND ALSO
SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING (MAINLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST)WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE RESULT OF THESE GOINGS ON ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONFINE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HEAT BACK UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO SOME
SPORADIC 100 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT GOING NEAR THAT HOT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE 100S YET...BUT I DID RAISE HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEXMOS FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DID NOT LOOK BAD CONSIDERING ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
NIGHTTIME COOLING. DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE COULD END UP WITH
CONDITIONS ON PAR WITH THE RECENT HEAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AND WILL NOT MENTION RETURN
OF HEAT IN THE HWO AT THIS JUNCTURE.

MODEL CONSENSUS DOES GIVE SOME HOPE OF UPPER RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED
FAR ENOUGH WEST IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW BOUNDARIES
(AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION) TO EFFECTIVELY "BACK-DOOR" INTO THE
ARKLAMISS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL WEATHER
REGIME WOULD DEFINITELY CUT THE HEAT BACK A LITTLE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY RESULT IN MUCH BETTER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...I DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TAKING
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT PERSISTENCE INTO ACCOUNT.
FOR NOW I HAVE TAKEN THE TACT OF NOT RAISING GUIDANCE TEMPS TOO
MUCH (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS) AFTER SUNDAY AND INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY (WHILE VIGOROUSLY CROSSING
FINGERS). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TRACKING CONVECTION
AND ISSUING UPDATES AHEAD OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR TAF SITES.
HOT TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN RESULTING IN
PARTICULARLY GUSTY STORMS...KMEI RECENTLY HAD A GUST TO 42 KT WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN LOOKING CONVECTION FROM A RADAR PERSPECTIVE. LOOKS
AS IF CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT KMEI/KHBG BUT WILL CARRY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO AT KJAN. CONVECTION IS QUITE ISOLATED IN HWY 82 CORRIDOR
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITES FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION ISSUES WILL BE DECREASING THE WIDESPREAD CI SHIELD ACROSS
THE S...AND THEN ANY LATE NIGHT BR/HZ. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOWER
LAYERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST SO WILL NOT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE YET
ON VSBYS BUT DID LOWER KHBG TO MVFR GIVEN HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN TAFS FOR WED BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY.               /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  93  69  94 /  29  35  14  15
MERIDIAN      66  94  65  94 /  28  25  11  11
VICKSBURG     68  94  69  94 /  31  29  19  16
HATTIESBURG   70  94  68  94 /  30  36  16  14
NATCHEZ       68  93  69  92 /  36  29  17  16
GREENVILLE    70  96  70  96 /  16  20  11  16
GREENWOOD     68  95  69  95 /  12  19  11  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BB/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-082015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF-
DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUITMAN TO JACKSON TO
BASTROP LINE BETWEEN THROUGH 10PM. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CAUSING ROADWAYS TO BE
VERY SLICK WITH PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-082015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF
50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR.
TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE INCH IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME VERY SLICK ONCE WET AS LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO REMOVE EXCESS OIL AND
SEDIMENTS ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W DE SOTO             31.96N 88.78W
06/07/2011                   CLARKE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 280.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BRANDON            32.27N 90.02W
06/07/2011                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AND POWERLINES DOWN ON 108 PRESCOTT DRIVE.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW BRANDON            32.26N 90.03W
06/07/2011                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 AND WEST SUNSET DRIVE.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
546 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINOLA                  31.88N 89.96W
06/07/2011                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUPLE TREES DOWN OFF HWY 28

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW MOSELLE            31.45N 89.34W
06/07/2011                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
06/07/2011                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MENDENHALL          31.96N 89.94W
06/07/2011                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG AIRPORT RD

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
551 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MENDENHALL          31.93N 89.87W
06/07/2011                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN OFF ATHENS RD.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSZ043-044-049-050-072340-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-
609 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF FARMHAVEN AT 609 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LEAKE...EASTERN MADISON...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3256 9008 3277 8997 3264 8970 3248 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 114DEG 7KT 3260 8984

JA