Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Jackson, MS

588 
WWUS54 KJAN 072144
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSC049-149-072215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0412.000000T0000Z-110607T2215Z/
HINDS MS-WARREN MS-
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN WARREN AND WESTERN HINDS COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EDWARDS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
YOUNGTON...FLOWERS...BOVINA AND OAK RIDGE

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3253 9071 3253 9055 3251 9055 3252 9052
      3249 9046 3243 9038 3212 9049 3215 9072
      3222 9073 3219 9078 3225 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 120DEG 9KT 3234 9066

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SWIRL AROUND AN MCV MOVING WEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRIME DAYTIME HEATING TO SET
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THEY TRACK WEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AT HATTIESBURG
AND JACKSON THAT WAS HELPING FUEL THE CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL POINTS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS HAVING THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED IN THE NORTH.
LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLISTS SHOWED FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE STORMS TRAIN SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A COL JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA AND A WEAKENING OF ITS GRIP ON OUR CWA. THE TUTT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING CARRIED IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT AGAIN SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME IN
CLOSE WITH HIGHS 93-95F AT MOST SITES. COME THURSDAY WL HAVE A
WEAKENED RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CWA WITH THE TUTT AXIS IN THE GULF
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE GULF STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST AND LIMIT
DEEP MOISTURE TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. AM ANTICIPATING LESS CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE BETTER
HEATING THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPOSITE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIDGING WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATE FRIDAY AND ALSO
SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING (MAINLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST)WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE RESULT OF THESE GOINGS ON ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONFINE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HEAT BACK UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO SOME
SPORADIC 100 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT GOING NEAR THAT HOT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE 100S YET...BUT I DID RAISE HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEXMOS FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DID NOT LOOK BAD CONSIDERING ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
NIGHTTIME COOLING. DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE COULD END UP WITH
CONDITIONS ON PAR WITH THE RECENT HEAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AND WILL NOT MENTION RETURN
OF HEAT IN THE HWO AT THIS JUNCTURE.

MODEL CONSENSUS DOES GIVE SOME HOPE OF UPPER RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED
FAR ENOUGH WEST IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW BOUNDARIES
(AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION) TO EFFECTIVELY "BACK-DOOR" INTO THE
ARKLAMISS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL WEATHER
REGIME WOULD DEFINITELY CUT THE HEAT BACK A LITTLE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY RESULT IN MUCH BETTER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...I DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TAKING
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT PERSISTENCE INTO ACCOUNT.
FOR NOW I HAVE TAKEN THE TACT OF NOT RAISING GUIDANCE TEMPS TOO
MUCH (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS) AFTER SUNDAY AND INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY (WHILE VIGOROUSLY CROSSING
FINGERS). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR SITES NORTH OF I-20 AND
THESE SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE. SOUTH OF I-20...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AND MANY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08/01Z OR EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50KTS OF WIND OR HIGHER AND
HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE HZ LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WED. ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT BR IN THE SOUTH. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  93  69  94 /  29  35  14  15
MERIDIAN      66  94  65  94 /  28  25  11  11
VICKSBURG     68  94  69  94 /  31  29  19  16
HATTIESBURG   70  94  68  94 /  30  36  16  14
NATCHEZ       68  93  69  92 /  36  29  17  16
GREENVILLE    70  96  70  96 /  16  20  11  16
GREENWOOD     68  95  69  95 /  12  19  11  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BB/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-082015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF-
DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUITMAN TO JACKSON TO
BASTROP LINE BETWEEN THROUGH 10PM. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CAUSING ROADWAYS TO BE
VERY SLICK WITH PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-082015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF
50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR.
TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE INCH IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME VERY SLICK ONCE WET AS LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO REMOVE EXCESS OIL AND
SEDIMENTS ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUNRISE                 31.31N 89.21W
06/07/2011  E50.00 MPH       FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN REPORTED IN THE INDIAN SPRINGS AND SUNRISE
            AREA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW JACKSON              32.32N 90.21W
06/07/2011                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLE AND LINES DOWN NEAR ELLIS AVE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW JACKSON           32.39N 90.24W
06/07/2011                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN AT I-220 OVERPASS AT LIVINGSTON ROAD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             8 SW MAGEE              31.79N 89.83W
06/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG GARNER ROAD NEAR THE
            SIMPSON COUNTY/JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY LINE.

&&

MME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW BROOKLYN           31.10N 89.23W
06/07/2011                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF JB HORNE AND
            PEARCES ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             2 W ROXIE               31.51N 91.10W
06/07/2011  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWO REPORTS HAIL NEAR THE ROXIE COMMUNITY...QUARTER TO
            GOLF BALL SIZE

&&