Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Watches in 2011

Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Jackson, MS

March 7, 20115 parishes in Louisiana; 40 counties in Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood watch at Mar 7, 2011, 6:02 PM CST for 5 parishes in Louisiana; 40 counties in Mississippi. It took effect at Mar 8, 2011, 6:00 PM CST. It was in force for 17 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 7, 2011, 6:02 PM CST (00:02 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 8, 2011, 6:00 PM CST
Expired
Mar 9, 2011, 11:05 AM CST
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Flood severity
None
All 45 counties

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2011-03-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2011-03-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 49 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

963 
WGUS64 KJAN 080002
FFAJAN

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

...INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-080815-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
602 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 
 MISSISSIPPI.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
  COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
  RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
  TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
  EXITING THE WATCH AREA TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
  DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE
  EVENT COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL
  TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS PAST
  WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
  CREEKS...STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON LARGER
  RIVERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
  CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

50
7 follow-up statements
993 
WGUS64 KJAN 080815
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-081615-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
215 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN 
 APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER 
 DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND 
 THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE WATCH AREA TO 
 THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY 
 RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI 
 WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT COULD EXCEED 4 
 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS 
 OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS 
 PAST WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT 
 HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON 
 LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON 
 LARGER RIVERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING 
 SHOULD CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
22
346 
WGUS64 KJAN 081558 AAA
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-090000-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
958 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
  COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
  RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE WATCH
  AREA TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR
  HEAVY RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
  WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT COULD EXCEED 4
  INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2
  INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS 
 PAST WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT 
 HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON 
 LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON 
 LARGER RIVERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING 
 SHOULD CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

17
693 
WGUS64 KJAN 082213
FFAJAN

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...

MSZ026>029-036-090615-
/O.EXA.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-HOLMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...DURANT...
TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN
413 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 
 AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN 
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER 
  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE WATCH AREA TO 
  THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY 
  RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI 
  WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT COULD EXCEED 4 
  INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS 
  OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS PAST
  WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL CREEKS
  AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON LARGER RIVERS
  POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONSIDER
  TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-090615-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
413 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN 
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER 
  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE WATCH AREA TO 
  THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY 
  RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI 
  WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT COULD EXCEED 4 
  INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS 
  OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS PAST
  WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL CREEKS
  AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON LARGER RIVERS
  POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONSIDER
  TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

50
612 
WGUS64 KJAN 082239
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-090645-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.110309T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...DURANT...TCHULA...
LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
439 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
  COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
  RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
  TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
  WATCH AREA TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL
  FOR HEAVY RAIN IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
  MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT COULD
  EXCEED 5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS IN
  EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS 
  PAST WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS COMING EVENT 
  HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON 
  LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON 
  LARGER RIVERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING 
  SHOULD CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS NOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

50
476 
WGUS64 KJAN 091006
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-091800-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...DURANT...TCHULA...
LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
406 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* UNTIL NOON CST TODAY

* RAPID RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
  DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
  RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
  THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE EXITING
  THE WATCH AREA TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
  SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAINFALL POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK. LOCATIONS
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  MISSISSIPPI...HAVE SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
  WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE HEAVIEST
  RAINS EXIT THE REGION. 

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS PAST
  WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT HAVE AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL CREEKS
  AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON LARGER RIVERS
  POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
  MONITOR LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

28
613 
WGUS64 KJAN 091211 AAA
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...

LAZ016-023>025-MSZ026>030-036-042-047-091315-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-HOLMES-YAZOO-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...
PICKENS...GOODMAN...YAZOO CITY...VICKSBURG
611 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY NOON. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  

$$

LAZ026-MSZ031>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-091800-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
611 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

* UNTIL NOON CST TODAY

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
  CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
  HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE
  59 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
  SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...HAVE SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
  INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE
  THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXIT THE REGION.

* CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS 
 PAST WEEKEND...EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT HAVE 
 AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON 
 LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STEADY RISES ON 
 LARGER RIVERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOSE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING 
 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND 
 STATEMENTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

22
812 
WGUS64 KJAN 091705 AAA
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011


LAZ026-MSZ031>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-091815-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-110309T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
1105 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

17

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Mar 7, 3:46 PM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 7, 3:46 PM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST CONCERN
WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING LATE TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING THE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION IS TAKING SHAPE AT THIS HOUR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
SE NEW MEXICO NOTED ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES RISING IN EXCESS
OF 1.5IN FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY TUES EVENING.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS IN VICINITY OF A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LA/
SOUTHEASTERN AR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
400-600J/KG...BUT THIS WILL REALLY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
CAP IS OVER NE LA...AND HOW EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FARTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN AR. IF THE CAP CAN HOLD ON UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY...THIS RISK WILL INCREASE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REALLY GET GOING TUESDAY EVENING AS CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AIDS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER
SOUTHWEST MS...WHICH WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
OUTLIER TO THIS THINKING IS IN THE NAM MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SURVIVING THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THIS DOES END UP
HAPPENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWA...AT A MINIMUM UP TO AND ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
ALL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THIS TYPE OF WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. LARGE HAIL IS THE ONLY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT IS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THE
HWO/GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
IMPACTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT THINKING.

THE OTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED IS QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RAINFALL RATES IN
THE 1.5-2IN/HR RANGE WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME HINT THAT THE QLCS MAY HANG UP FOR A FEW HOURS SOMEWHERE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY...WHICH WOULD REALLY ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

ANY LINGERING RAIN IN WAKE OF THE MCS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY
WED AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
WHICH SEEMED MUCH MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARM/SOUTHERLY FLOW. /BK/

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AIR BEGINS TAKING
OVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
SOME 5-10F BELOW NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH. CAA DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH
LOWS OF 40-45F LEADING TO THE HIGHS MAINLY 62-68F. EXPECT ANOTHER
MORNING OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF 35-40F FRIDAY WITH FROST LIKELY IN SOME
AREAS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE COLDEST ENSEMBLE MOS MEMBERS SUGGEST
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE AS WELL AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS AS A 1026MB SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE WARM UP BEGINS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING SEND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO 70F.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE RISK FOR ANY RAINFALL. THIS
SYSTEM REINFORCES OUR DRY AIR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
QUICK TURNAROUND TO WAA AND THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN COMING ABOUT
MONDAY NIGHT OR SO NEXT WEEK./40/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT GLH/JAN/HBG...THEN SPREAD NE ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
PRIOR TO NOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOMING LIKELY TUES AFTN INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR ALL
SITES THEN WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  66  63  75 /   0  76  89  48
MERIDIAN      44  66  63  76 /   0  54  87  67
VICKSBURG     47  66  59  73 /   0  83  85  25
HATTIESBURG   46  69  61  79 /   0  46  85  66
NATCHEZ       53  70  62  73 /   0  76  85  35
GREENVILLE    44  63  61  70 /   0  93  85  19
GREENWOOD     43  63  61  72 /   0  90  92  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/EC
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 7, 2:59 PM CST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ047-053-054-059>062-082100-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
259 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AS PART OF A WEATHER
EVENT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG
TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

A POTENT DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RESULT IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FEED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREA COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
SEVERAL INCHES IN A PERIOD OF 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>044-048>052-055>058-063>066-
072>074-082100-
CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
259 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN EPISODE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

A POTENT DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FEED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...AND MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREA
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A PERIOD
OF 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.

THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MSZ026>033-037>039-045-046-082100-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
259 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH A THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS THE MAIN THREAT.

A POTENT DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST
AIR MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREA COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
SEVERAL INCHES IN A PERIOD OF 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

08

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 8, 8:12 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANClay3 days
Mar 8, 9:57 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANAttala, Holmes8 days
Mar 8, 10:24 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANJones6 days
Mar 8, 2:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin, Lincoln50 min
Mar 8, 2:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCopiah28 min
Mar 8, 3:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANClarke4 days
Mar 8, 4:12 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANJefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Marion3 hr
Mar 8, 5:17 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANFranklin118 min
Mar 8, 5:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANForrest, Lamar, Marion54 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi, 2011Flash Flood Watches in Louisiana, 2011Every flash flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.