Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BOWING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE
A TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH WERE IN EFFECT. DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS IN VIEW OF A WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND PUSH THE CONVECTION EAST OF OUR CWA.
THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SKIRTING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT DECREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST HINDERING RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S AT MOST SITES. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS
WILL SET UP THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED AND WL MENTION
IN THE HWO THAT TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.
/22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A WET WEEKEND AND
ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR THE ARKLAMISS RESIDENTS.
THIS OCCURS AS A 1026MB SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL
BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT
REMAIN TOO CHILLY FOR TOO LONG AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THE SFC HIGH SCOOTS A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE REGION AND HELP TO SEND HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN SOME AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MICHIGAN PENINSULA. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION BUT THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS WOULD
BE TO BRING IN SOME CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE WEAK FROPA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN COMES AROUND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. LAST NIGHT
THE GFS WAS DEVELOPING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MUCH MORE THAN TONIGHT.
TONIGHTS RUN DEPICTS THIS AS A VERY WEAKLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/WAVE AND
MOVES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WITH NO SFC LOW REFLECTION.
THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS THE MUCH WEAKENER SOLUTION LAST NIGHT...IS A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW BARRELING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGAIN RESEMBLES THE WEAKER
SOLUTION AND HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THIS TREND WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND MONDAY. THE FASTER GFS BRINGS IN RIDGING
ONCE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE EVEN
MORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER ROBUST
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEPICT
THIS WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA(THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE MORE OF AN
ARTIFACT OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES). /28/

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF HBG. THIS LINE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS HBG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BELOW 3KFT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES FROM THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY LAST OVER THE NORTHEAST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  40  59  34 /  56   7   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  39  62  32 /  86   9   2   0
VICKSBURG     68  40  59  34 /  24   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   77  44  64  37 /  86   9   2   0
NATCHEZ       72  40  59  35 /  33   5   0   0
GREENVILLE    64  38  56  35 /  14   8   0   0
GREENWOOD     67  37  55  33 /  29   9   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

22/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-101045-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
441 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THIS COMES AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE BROUGHT SATURATED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS REGION REMAINS UNDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN...TO BAY SPRINGS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND TORNADOES. AS THE HEAVIEST STORMS SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN...TENDER VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-101045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
441 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

28/22

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE PRENTISS           31.65N 89.81W
03/09/2011                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
655 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S MERIDIAN            32.32N 88.71W
03/09/2011                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS ARE UNDERWATER IN MOSTLY SOUTHERN
            LAUDERDALE COUNTY. OFFICIALS ARE WORKING TO CLOSE ROADS.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE LAUREL            31.76N 89.10W
03/09/2011                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT SHARON RD AND REEDY
            CREEK RD. WATER HAD ALSO RISEN UP TO A TRAILER IN THE
            AREA.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      QUITMAN                 32.04N 88.72W
03/09/2011                   CLARKE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EXTENSIVE FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE QUITMAN AREA...AND
            WATER RESCUES ARE STILL ONGOING. SO FAR...SEVEN RESIDENTS
            HAVE BEEN RESCUED FROM FIVE DIFFERENT HOUSES.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MENDENHALL          31.90N 89.87W
03/09/2011  M5.62 INCH       SIMPSON            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORT FROM COCORAHS OBSERVER

0710 AM     HEAVY RAIN       14 SE MERIDIAN          32.24N 88.54W
03/09/2011  M7.00 INCH       LAUDERDALE         MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORT FROM COCORAHS OBSERVER

&&

JCULIN