Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WAS NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WAS STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NW OHIO WAS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TODAY. EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS WET
BULB ZERO HIGHS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...FAVOR THE SPECTRAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF GIVEN THE
SUPERIOR HANDLING OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND THE FUJI WHARA INTERACTION
OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROWAL SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF RAIN. GIVEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION...LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS/MAV.

&&

.LONG TERM...

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS FOCUS HAS BEEN MORE ON
NEAR TERM WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS AND GEFS WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH GOING GRIDS AND EXPECTED PATTERN. PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION TO SOME DEGREE BUT WOBBLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE COMING BACK OUR WAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE A CONCERN
WITH VERY DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. KEPT
TEMPS IN UPPER 30S WITH CONCERN FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
GRADIENT. IF SKIES INDEED CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT COULD SEE
TEMPS DROP TO LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLE FROST.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL HELP REINFORCE UPPER LOW AND BRING BACK
TOWARD THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TREND OF
BRINGING POPS BACK WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT POPS OVER ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST TO WEST
WITH LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW. CONTINUED
OPTIMISTIC DRY POPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. ECMWF SLOWER WITH NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH TENDS TO WORK
OUT AS GFS HAS A FAST EASTWARD BIAS WITH CLOSED LOWS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS VERY COOL THROUGH FIRST PART OF WEEK THEN SLOW WARMING AS LOW
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST. OPTIMISTIC FOR END OF WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD DESTABILIZED. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS BETWEEN SBN AND FWA...
WITH SBN IN THE COLD SECTOR. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT BOTH SBN AND FWA AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LOW IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT SBN GIVEN PRECIPITATION FALLING FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
510 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-150915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
510 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011 /410 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE DURING THIS TIME ALONG AND EAST OF A LOGANSPORT TO WARSAW
TO STURGIS LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER. ALSO...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-150915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
510 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BIPPUS                  40.94N  85.62W
05/14/2011  M4.00 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED 4 INCHES OR MORE

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100765

BML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     FLOOD            2 NNW NEY               41.41N  84.54W
05/14/2011                   DEFIANCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED AROUND THE NEY AREA...WITH
            BASEMENT FLOODING REPORTED NEAR LICK CREEK...LICK CREEK
            RISING RAPIDLY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100766

JC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     WALL CLOUD       2 WSW WESTCHESTER       40.48N  84.93W
05/14/2011                   JAY                IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICER REPORTS SEEING A ROTATING WALL CLOUD...NO
            FUNNEL PRESENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100768

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
927 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     FLOOD            MONTPELIER              40.55N  85.28W
05/14/2011                   BLACKFORD          IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BASEMENTS FLOODED IN NUMEROUS HOUSES. FIRE STATION IS
            FLOODED. ROADS ARE CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100769

BML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
940 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     FLOOD            3 NNE CENTER            40.48N  85.05W
05/14/2011                   JAY                IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD IMPASSABLE FROM FLOODING FOR NEARLY 300
            YARDS...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS 350 AND
            300.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100770

MCS