River Flood Warning 67, NWS Northern Indiana

603 
WGUS83 KIWX 160304
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE AFFECTING ALLEN...DE KALB AND
  DEFIANCE COUNTIES 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 

  KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS ROUTE 30 AFFECTING LA PORTE...ST. JOSEPH 
  AND STARKE COUNTIES 
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO BELOW MONTPELIER AFFECTING WILLIAMS COUNTY
  
 
.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS CAUSED RAPID RIVER RISES
IN THESE BASINS AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIVERS TO EITHER BE IN FLOOD
OR FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC091-141-149-170304-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DAVI3.1.ER.110515T1700Z.110517T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS ROUTE 30
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 11.3 FEET AROUND 8 
  PM MONDAY MAY 16 AND BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER BEGINS.

$$

OHC171-170304-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110519T0600Z/
/MONO1.1.ER.110516T0051Z.110516T1800Z.110518T0600Z.NO/
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO BELOW MONTPELIER
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND
  CREST NEAR 12.9 FEET AROUND 2 PM MONDAY MAY 16 AND FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE AROUND 2 AM WEDNESDAY MAY 18.
* AT 13.0 FEET...COUNTY ROAD K, ONE MILE SOUTHWEST OF MONTPELIER 
  BEGINS TO FLOOD. SOME FLOODING BEGINS TO AFFECT THE VILLAGE OF 
  PIONEER. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS NEAR
  THE RIVER.

$$

INC003-033-OHC039-170304-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0068.110516T1124Z-000000T0000Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.110516T1124Z.110518T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

 THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING  
  AND CREST NEAR 12.5 FEET AROUND 2 PM WEDNESDAY MAY 18. 
* AT 12.0 FEET...DEKALB COUNTY ROAD 42 ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
  NEWVILLE FLOODS. AGRICULTURAL AND LOW LANDS FLOOD ALONG THE ST. 
  JOSEPH RIVER TO THE CEDARVILLE RESERVOIR.

$$

OHC039-051-171-170304-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0069.110516T1100Z-110518T1200Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.110516T1100Z.110516T1800Z.110517T1200Z.NO/
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

 THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* FROM MONDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING  
  AND CREST NEAR 11.2 FEET AROUND 8 PM MONDAY MAY 16 AND FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY MAY 17.
* AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS AROUND STRYKER CAN BE 
  EXPECTED.

$$

868 
WGUS83 KIWX 161456
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1056 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO BELOW MONTPELIER AFFECTING WILLIAMS COUNTY
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE AFFECTING ALLEN...DE KALB AND
  DEFIANCE COUNTIES
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS HIGH WATER EVENT.

OHC171-161526-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110519T0600Z/
/MONO1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO BELOW MONTPELIER
* AT 8 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.

$$

INC003-033-OHC039-161526-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110516T1456Z/
/NVLI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
518 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH TAMER IN SHORT TERM AFTER EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHARS FLASH FLOOD
EVENT IN HUNTINGTON CO/WABASH BASIN. CYC CIRC SYSTEM THAT HAS
MEANDERED ACRS THE SRN PART OF IN WL FINALLY LIFT NNE AS COMPLEX
SYSTEM OF LOBES/WEAKER CIRC FUJIWHARA THROUGH THE BASE OF CIRC.
FIRST LOBE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NC WL ALSO BEGIN TO FORCE
CYCLOGENESIS ACRS ERN PA AND EAST OF APPALACHIA TODAY. START OF THIS
SEEN WITH UPTICK IN PRESSURE FALLS ACRS PA INTO NJ. EXPCT RAFL
ASSOCD WITH PERSISTENT MID LVL DEFORMATION/LLVL CONVERGENT
TROF/ISENT UPGLIDE IN COLD CONVEYOR BELT TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY THIS
AFTN AS ISENT SFCS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO BACKING FLOW. FAVOR NAM
WITH HANDLING OF 5H COMPLEXITIES AND CONT TREND TOWARD LIGHTER
PRECIP/LOWER POPS ESPCLY BY LATE TONIGHT. ALL BUT SERN CWA DRY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHC POPS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF DEEP TROF ACRS
OH AND ASSOCD DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. CONT TREND TO COOLER TEMPS
TODAY ESPCLY NWRN CWA W/INCRSG NRLY FLOW/DEEPER CAA ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW. RMNG PDS HAVE OPTED FOR A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS GIVEN PROGGED UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY AIRMASS THROUGH TUE.
CONTD NRLY SFC FLOW TUE...BUT ANTICIPATE MID MAY INSOLATION TO
PROVIDE STRONG OFFSET EFFECT. CONCERN GROWING FOR POTNL OF PTCHY
FROST LATE MON NIGHT/ERLY TUE AM AS PROGGED 4-5C 925MB TEMPS WOULD
SUPPORT FROST DVLPMENT...ALL BUT FAR ERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
GRTR FAILURE TO DECOUPLE. MENTION IN GRIDS/ZFP/HWO SUFFICE FOR NOW
AS CHCS TOO LOW/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE UNCERTAIN...TO CONTEMPLATE
HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AS LATEST GUIDANCE MATCHES UP
RELATIVELY WELL WITH INHERITED GRIDS AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE.
STAGNANT REX-LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THIS BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ORIENTATION OF THIS NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FA WILL SUPPORT EAST TO WEST PROPAGATION OF ANY WAVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK DPVA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH ANY SUCH WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. CONSISTENT GEFS PROBABILITY CHARTS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARDS THE TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS BEING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS...HIGHEST IN THE EAST GIVEN EXPECTED
ORIENTATION OF MASS FIELDS. OTHERWISE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEK. OPTED TO CONTINUE
TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE PESKY CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY GET NUDGED EWD BY DAYS 6/7
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH FCST TO EJECT OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE EWD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY....RESULTING IN A NICE REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
WX BY THIS TIME. CONSIDERED ADDING POPS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FAVOR
THE SLOWER/DRY SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS OVER THE OPERATIONAL
GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE GIVEN THE BLOCKED LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/...
INCRSNG STABILITY AND GRDL DECAY OF WWD EXTNS OF SFC TROF OFF CNTL
OH SFC LOW SHOULD ALLOW WDSPRD RAFL THIS AM TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY
WITH TIME. DRIER AIR TO DRAW IN FM N THIS AFTN AS SFC LOW/TROF
REFOCUSES ALONG APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH CIGS GRDLY RISING. KSBN TO
DRY OUT FIRST AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTN. DEEPER ESTABLISHED
MSTR INVOF KFWA TO KEEP CIGS INTO IFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF ERLY AM
HOURS AND THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR ALBEIT SLOWER IMPROVING TREND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161100-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 /546 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAL FLOODING FROM YESTERDAY'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS LED TO ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HUNTINGTON COUNTY WHERE EXTENSIVE FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY ROAD CLOSURES AND/OR IMPASSABLE ROADS DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-161100-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MICHIGAN CITY     41.69N  86.90W
05/15/2011  M2.60 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100777

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WNW NEW BUFFALO         41.79N  86.74W
05/15/2011  M2.11 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL OVER PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100778

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
904 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E BRYAN               41.47N  84.53W
05/15/2011  M2.17 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL OVER PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100779

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
926 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLOOD            BIPPUS                  40.94N  85.62W
05/15/2011                   HUNTINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY COUNTY ROADS WERE STILL FLOODED OVER THE NORTHERN
            PORTION OF HUNTINGTON COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100780

SKIPPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
933 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     FLOOD            3 E SERVIA              40.96N  85.69W
05/15/2011                   WABASH             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME COUNTY ROADS WERE STILL FLOODED OVER NORTHEAST
            WABASH COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HUNTINGTON COUNTY
            BORDER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100781

SKIPPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1107 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTPELIER              41.59N  84.60W
05/15/2011  M3.22 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OVER PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100782

SAW