Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
642 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

REMNANTS FROM A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER RELATIVE TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. FURTHER OUT...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH MID MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CUT OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. AS A RESULT...MOVED POPS
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE JUST BECAUSE OF AMPLE
SUNSHINE. MODELS MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR CLEARING SOON ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE PROGGED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO
TIMING...BUT THE EURO AND NAM ARE MERELY HINTING AT THE
DISTURBANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED WAVE. AT
THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHICH WAY TO GO...SO WILL
ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WITH IT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS...MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDED ABOVE THIS DUE TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR WILL START ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AFORMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE
SIMILAR...BUT AS USUAL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE SMALLER WAVES. USED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH YIELDS CHANCES FOR RAIN SAT/SUN
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT BIG QUESTION IS WILL
THE NINETY WEATHER STICK AROUND? NUDGED UP GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON PAST VERIFICATIOBN WHICH PUTS THE INDY AREA JUST
BELOW 90...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVEN WARMER TRENDS
PREVAIL. TOO EARLY TO TELL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
INITIALLY...HOWEVER AS DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES...CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT. THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD BE EASILY REACHING IN THE LOWER 80S LATER THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENCE. THUS EXPECT CU TO DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
456 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-040900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
456 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DEADLY LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
744 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ064-065-072-031230-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
744 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR DECATUR...NORTHEASTERN
BARTHOLOMEW AND NORTHERN JENNINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

AT 742 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF BATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL EASTERN DECATUR COUNTY THROUGH 830 AM EDT
RURAL NORTHERN JENNINGS COUNTY THROUGH 830 AM EDT

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8543 3897 8544 3895 8571 3935 8585
      3935 8563 3939 8563 3944 8529 3927 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 325DEG 41KT 3930 8532

SMF