Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE COMPARED TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
LATELY...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY AND AN UNSETTLED
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN COULD KICK IN BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INSTEAD OF GETTING EVEN HOTTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM TONIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WORKS
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MOVES OUR WAY.  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND RAPID REFRESH SPREADS THIS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOUR BEFORE WEAKENING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.   LAPS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD
CAP ACROSS OUR REGION...SO THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.   PREFER
SLOWING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE AND KEEP BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS GOES PRETTY
WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS.

DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS AS A
RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY SPEAKING GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL RECENTLY AND FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT IN AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE THOSE DAYS AND DRY SOIL
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH/EXCEED 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS AMOUNTED TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...KEPT SOME POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE SNEAKS INTO THE WEST AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON FRIDAY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND THUS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PRECIP BUT FOR NOW
MAINTAINED THE GOING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE
SIMILAR...BUT AS USUAL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE SMALLER WAVES. USED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH YIELDS CHANCES FOR RAIN SAT/SUN
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE
NINETY WEATHER STICK AROUND? NUDGED UP GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON PAST VERIFICATIOBN WHICH PUTS THE INDY AREA JUST BELOW
90...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVEN WARMER TRENDS PREVAIL. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS ZONE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT...SO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS/AFTER ABOUT 030600Z. IF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY BEGIN
AT KLAF AS EARLY AS 030300Z. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR MAY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAN
WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG TONIGHT AS SOME SURFACE GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION IN THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED UP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IND...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
834 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

INZ051>057-060>065-067>072-031000-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-
BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
JENNINGS-
834 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 95 TO 100 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DEADLY LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>049-031000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-
834 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DEADLY LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
109 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ021-030600-
CARROLL-
109 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM
EDT...

AT 108 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONTICELLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
YEOMAN AROUND 125 AM EDT...
DELPHI AROUND 135 AM EDT...
CAMDEN AROUND 140 AM EDT...
FLORA AROUND 145 AM EDT...
BURLINGTON AROUND 200 AM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 8652 4070 8652 4070 8645 4068 8638
      4045 8637 4043 8653 4045 8668 4057 8670
      4057 8678 4074 8676 4074 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 315DEG 29KT 4076 8680

PUMA