Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
522 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
IN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED POP UP
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE AS OF 19Z. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
GETTING BETTER AS THE CAP ERODES SO SOME CELLS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT FROM ILLINOIS...REACHING
THE INDIANA BORDER MOST LIKELY IN THE 7-9 PM EDT TIMEFRAME. PLENTY
OF CAPE SHOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THE CAP SHOULD BE ERODED BY
THAT TIME ALONG WITH A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO HELP THINGS
ALONG. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WARMER LOWS FROM THE MAV IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF DRY BEFORE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AGAIN AND CHANCES INCREASE. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE GOING IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND PROVIDES EXTRA FORCING IN ADDITION
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS WITH GOOD FORCING AND STILL PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD SO KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS
GOING.

SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC FOR MONDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH UPPER JET
NEARBY AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
TUESDAY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JET DYNAMICS BEING EVEN BETTER.

WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW ALONG WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW SUNSHINE
THROUGH THINK WARMER IS THE WAY TO GO. THUS FOR TEMPERATURES USED
WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND EVEN BUMPED UP FROM THERE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
A COUPLE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AT LEAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
KEEP IT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THAT POINT THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BRINGING
THE LOW THROUGH AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BACK IN ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE
POPS GOING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND START TAPERING TO MID
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP
CHANCE THUNDER GOING TO COVER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO THE
AREA. FOR THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND THUS STUCK WITH HPCS AVERAGE OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL STICK WITH
LOWER THAN AVERAGE HPC TEMPERATURES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAFS/...

HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SQUALL LINE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AND A TRAILING ONE ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS MODEL
SUGGESTS A 01Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT LAF AND HUF FOR THE TWO LINES AND
02Z-06Z TIME FRAME FOR IND AND BMG. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS AND TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR THAT TIME AND JUST CB'S AFTER TO COVER AND
ADDITONAL TRAILING STORMS OR STORMS TOMORROW AS TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR STILL WITH VARIOUS IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
HARD TO RESOLVE. WILL THROW IN TEMPO WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AS WELL
WITH THE SQUALL LINE OR LINES.

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS WHEN WE COULD
SEE MVFR OR WORSE. WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. OTHERWISE...AGAIN EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 25 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FINALLY...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST TO STAY
NORTH OF LAF THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
845 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-231000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
845 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS...GET INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. ON
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ACROSS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS ON
MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               39.62N 86.11W
05/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

0619 PM     HAIL             BEECH GROVE             39.72N 86.09W
05/22/2011  M0.50 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF INCH AT KEYSTONE AND RAYMOND AVES
            INTERSECTION.

0621 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
05/22/2011  M0.75 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT SOUTH SPLIT OF INTERSTATE 65 AND 70 JUST SOUTH OF
            DOWNTOWN INDIANAPOLIS.

&&

RYAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
641 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             LAWRENCE                39.87N 85.99W
05/22/2011  E0.75 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
703 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             4 NE LAWRENCE           39.91N 85.93W
05/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       HANCOCK            IN   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL AT THE INTERESECTION OF
            FOX AND OAKLANDON ROADS.

&&

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
706 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ028-029-035-222330-
FOUNTAIN-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
706 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...NORTHERN
TIPPECANOE AND EASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSPORT...OR 18 MILES SOUTH
OF FOWLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHADELAND AROUND 725 PM EDT...
WEST LAFAYETTE...PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 730 PM EDT...

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8688 4040 8672 4025 8733 4042 8741
      4048 8735 4048 8710 4057 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 249DEG 34KT 4037 8724

HOMANN/CP