Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Indianapolis, IN

131 
WWUS53 KIND 222051
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
451 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INC139-222101-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-110522T2100Z/
RUSH-
451 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY WILL 
EXPIRE AT 500 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3945 8530 3945 8539 3945 8540 3960 8549
      3966 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 240DEG 33KT 3953 8511

$$

NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
IN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED POP UP
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE AS OF 19Z. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
GETTING BETTER AS THE CAP ERODES SO SOME CELLS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT FROM ILLINOIS...REACHING
THE INDIANA BORDER MOST LIKELY IN THE 7-9 PM EDT TIMEFRAME. PLENTY
OF CAPE SHOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THE CAP SHOULD BE ERODED BY
THAT TIME ALONG WITH A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO HELP THINGS
ALONG. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WARMER LOWS FROM THE MAV IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF DRY BEFORE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AGAIN AND CHANCES INCREASE. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE GOING IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND PROVIDES EXTRA FORCING IN ADDITION
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS WITH GOOD FORCING AND STILL PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD SO KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS
GOING.

SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC FOR MONDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH UPPER JET
NEARBY AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
TUESDAY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JET DYNAMICS BEING EVEN BETTER.

WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW ALONG WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW SUNSHINE
THROUGH THINK WARMER IS THE WAY TO GO. THUS FOR TEMPERATURES USED
WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND EVEN BUMPED UP FROM THERE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
A COUPLE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AT LEAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
KEEP IT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THAT POINT THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BRINGING
THE LOW THROUGH AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BACK IN ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE
POPS GOING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND START TAPERING TO MID
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP
CHANCE THUNDER GOING TO COVER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO THE
AREA. FOR THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND THUS STUCK WITH HPCS AVERAGE OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL STICK WITH
LOWER THAN AVERAGE HPC TEMPERATURES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS AS
INCREASING WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNSET. MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN EXPECTATION IS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY FOLLOWED POTENTIALLY BY AN EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL
LINE. WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE IN QUESTION...WILL JUST THROW IN CB'S
FOR NOW THIS AFTERNOON UNLESS IT CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN JUST
BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKEWISE KEEP CB'S IN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABOVE 500 J/KG THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON TIMING WITH SO MANY IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BUFKIT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS 25 KNOTS OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF IND BY 00Z TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP IT JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOT MENTION A WIND SHIFT AND ADJUST IN LATER TAFS IF
NEED BE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
845 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-231000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
845 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS...GET INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. ON
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ACROSS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS ON
MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ045>047-053-054-221915-
HENDRICKS-MARION-MORGAN-OWEN-PUTNAM-
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR HENDRICKS...WESTERN MARION...
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTHEASTERN OWEN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF SPENCER...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EMINENCE AROUND 240 PM EDT...
LITTLE POINT AND BELLE UNION AROUND 245 PM EDT...
STILESVILLE AND MONROVIA AROUND 255 PM EDT...
AMO AND COATESVILLE AROUND 300 PM EDT...
CLAYTON AROUND 305 PM EDT...
DANVILLE...AVON AND PLAINFIELD AROUND 315 PM EDT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 8667 3992 8657 3977 8621 3940 8663
      3947 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 211DEG 29KT 3948 8669

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 SW CAMBY              39.63N 86.35W
05/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       MORGAN             IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             CAMBY                   39.66N 86.31W
05/22/2011  U2.00 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             1 S CAMBY               39.65N 86.31W
05/22/2011  U1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             2 S MILROY              39.47N 85.47W
05/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       RUSH               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0350 PM     HAIL             2 S CAMBY               39.63N 86.31W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR NORTH MADISON ELEMENTARY

0332 PM     HAIL             3 N DUGGER              39.11N 87.26W
05/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       SULLIVAN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASS

0322 PM     HAIL             ST. PAUL                39.43N 85.63W
05/22/2011  E0.25 INCH       DECATUR            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             CAMBY                   39.66N 86.31W
05/22/2011  M2.50 INCH       MARION             IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CP