Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Indianapolis, IN

801 
WWUS53 KIND 232155
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INC107-232205-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-110523T2215Z/
MONTGOMERY-
555 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4031 8641 3993 8638 3994 8668 4024 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 270DEG 20KT 4022 8668 3994 8667

$$

INC011-023-232215-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-110523T2215Z/
BOONE-CLINTON-
555 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON AND WESTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT TO 13
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ADVANCE AROUND 600 PM EDT...
  THORNTOWN AROUND 605 PM EDT...
  LEBANON...ULEN AND FRANKFORT AROUND 615 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 8641 3993 8638 3994 8668 4024 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 270DEG 20KT 4022 8668 3994 8667
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOMANN/TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE
BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RUN BELOW AVERAGE BEFORE
RECOVERING SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND CUMULUS ARE STARTING TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED
AND THE CAP HAS PRETTY MUCH ERODED SO COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF POP
UP THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. ALSO A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS SHOULD BE REACHING THE STATE BORDER AROUND
4 PM OR SO...AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROMPTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
RAMPING UP ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HELP WITH STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH EARLY IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BEFORE MOVING EAST. FEEL THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST FROM THE HOURS OF 4 TO 10 PM. WITH THE GREAT INSTABILITY
AND SOME SHEAR BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A COOL FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WEAKENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTH
OF I 70 AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70 FOR TUESDAY. NORTH OF
THIS WILL TAPER TO CHANCE POPS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA SO EVEN WITH THE FRONT COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN ACTIVITY...THUS KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING. ON WEDNESDAY THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A GREAT
GULF MOISTURE FEED GETS ESTABLISHED. 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
POINTED AT INDIANA AND THE AREA IS ALSO IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITH
THE COUPLED UPPER JET. THE BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUS LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND
IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY THIS
COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GENERALLY LEANED ON THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AS THESE FIT BETTER WITH FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND.

A NOTE ON HYDROLOGY...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WELL AS A GOOD GULF MOISTURE
FEED...WILL PROBABLY CAUSE AT LEAST LOWLAND FLOODING AND COULD WIND
UP HAVING AN EVEN GREATER IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. AT THIS TIME
FORECASTING AROUND 3 INCHES NORTH TO 4 INCHES SOUTH BASED ON HPC
NUMBERS AND MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 5 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER PATTERN BY THURSDAY NIGHT  WITH THE GFS AND
GEFS BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WITH
TELECONNECTION PATTERNS FAVORING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER ECM THAT RETAINS THIS
SOLUTION.

ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW TREK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING COULD KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SO DROPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
KEPT LOW CHANCE GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. REMOVED THUNDER FOR THESE
TIMES AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. KEPT A
CHANCE GOING FOR SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECM SHOWING
ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TROUGHINESS
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 232100Z TAF UPDATE/...

SQUALL LINE IMPACTING KHUF AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT
BOTH KIND AND KBMG BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40-50KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...AND DEPENDING ON
TRENDS...MAY MAKE ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO TEMPO GROUPS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA LIKELY TO IMPACT KLAF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL.

18Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AFTER 09Z. ALSO...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON FRONTAL POSITION IS LOW WITH MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING...BUT WILL ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH LAF AROUND
12Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z AND BMG AROUND 00Z. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY.

BUFKIT AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AS MENTIONED ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
MVFR FOG TO FORM AFTER 09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INZ051>053-060>065-067>072-241945-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-241945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMINGTON             39.17N 86.52W
05/23/2011                   MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWN AT 10TH AND WALNUT.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDSVILLE          40.04N 86.90W
05/23/2011                   MONTGOMERY         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
534 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TORNADO          7 SE BEDFORD            38.79N 86.40W
05/23/2011                   LAWRENCE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
537 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND GST     INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W
05/23/2011  M63 MPH          MARION             IN   ASOS

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             CASTLETON               39.90N 86.05W
05/23/2011  M0.25 INCH       MARION             IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
543 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMINGTON             39.17N 86.52W
05/23/2011                   MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS BLOOMINGTON...ESPECIALLY AT
            3RD AND HAWTHORN AS WELL AS IN WINDSOR PARK.

&&

MRD