Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Indianapolis, IN

011 
WWUS53 KIND 232048
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
448 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INC021-027-055-083-101-119-153-167-232115-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-110523T2115Z/
CLAY-DAVIESS-GREENE-KNOX-MARTIN-OWEN-SULLIVAN-VIGO-
448 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...
DAVIESS...GREENE...KNOX...MARTIN...OWEN...EASTERN SULLIVAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIGO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG 
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPENCER TO 10 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST BOGGS LAKE AND LOOGOOTEE AROUND 455 PM EDT...
  SOLSBERRY AND MCCORMICKS CREEK STATE PARK AROUND 505 PM EDT...
  OWENSBURG AROUND 510 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 8773 3848 8771 3851 8765 3855 8767
      3864 8763 3869 8753 3874 8751 3894 8745
      3944 8744 3947 8666 3854 8670 3850 8706
      3855 8719 3850 8730 3854 8735 3851 8738
      3854 8740 3850 8753 3851 8754 3844 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 270DEG 34KT 3937 8694 3853 8700
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOMANN/TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE
BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RUN BELOW AVERAGE BEFORE
RECOVERING SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND CUMULUS ARE STARTING TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED
AND THE CAP HAS PRETTY MUCH ERODED SO COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF POP
UP THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. ALSO A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS SHOULD BE REACHING THE STATE BORDER AROUND
4 PM OR SO...AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROMPTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
RAMPING UP ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HELP WITH STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH EARLY IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BEFORE MOVING EAST. FEEL THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST FROM THE HOURS OF 4 TO 10 PM. WITH THE GREAT INSTABILITY
AND SOME SHEAR BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A COOL FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WEAKENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTH
OF I 70 AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70 FOR TUESDAY. NORTH OF
THIS WILL TAPER TO CHANCE POPS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA SO EVEN WITH THE FRONT COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN ACTIVITY...THUS KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING. ON WEDNESDAY THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A GREAT
GULF MOISTURE FEED GETS ESTABLISHED. 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
POINTED AT INDIANA AND THE AREA IS ALSO IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITH
THE COUPLED UPPER JET. THE BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUS LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND
IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY THIS
COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GENERALLY LEANED ON THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AS THESE FIT BETTER WITH FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND.

A NOTE ON HYDROLOGY...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WELL AS A GOOD GULF MOISTURE
FEED...WILL PROBABLY CAUSE AT LEAST LOWLAND FLOODING AND COULD WIND
UP HAVING AN EVEN GREATER IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. AT THIS TIME
FORECASTING AROUND 3 INCHES NORTH TO 4 INCHES SOUTH BASED ON HPC
NUMBERS AND MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 5 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER PATTERN BY THURSDAY NIGHT  WITH THE GFS AND
GEFS BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WITH
TELECONNECTION PATTERNS FAVORING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER ECM THAT RETAINS THIS
SOLUTION.

ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW TREK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING COULD KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SO DROPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
KEPT LOW CHANCE GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. REMOVED THUNDER FOR THESE
TIMES AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. KEPT A
CHANCE GOING FOR SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECM SHOWING
ANOTHER FRONT STARTING TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TROUGHINESS
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAFS/...

VFR EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AFTER 09Z. ALSO...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH  SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON FRONTAL POSITION IS LOW WITH
MODEL FLIP FLOPPING...BUT WILL ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH LAF AROUND
12Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z AND BMG AROUND 00Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY.

LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH
DECENT COVERAGE...EVEN MORE SO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL GO WITH
VCTS AND CB'S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. WILL TAKE A LAST MINUTE LOOK TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
ACTIVITY TRYING TO FORM AND IF SO...MAY ISSUE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM
GROUPS.

BUFKIT AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD AS MENTIONED ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND MVFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER 09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INZ051>053-060>065-067>072-241945-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-241945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1120 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             2 SE MORRISTOWN         39.65N 85.67W
05/22/2011  E2.00 INCH       SHELBY             IN   PUBLIC

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1126 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             5 W SOUTHPORT           39.65N 86.21W
05/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARMERSBURG             39.25N 87.38W
05/23/2011  M56 MPH          SULLIVAN           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MRD