Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN TRENDS...
PLUS TO LOWER THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT.

ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOODING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA...WHICH HAD ALREADY
RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY AND WAS PICKING UP
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES. NORTHERN CWA HAS MAINLY BEEN SEEING LIGHTER
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

LATEST RUC/HRRR SHOWING THE STORMS ESTABLISHING MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BULK OF THE RAIN
CENTERED SOUTH OF I-72 BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE IN THAT AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE A LOT COOLER THAN PROJECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CWA...HAD TO ADJUST THE LOWS WHICH WERE ALREADY
BEING MET IN A FEW AREAS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OR FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG AND
CIGS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD. SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL FIRE UP TO OUR WEST LATER
THIS EVENING AND PUSH ESE INTO SOUTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A LARGE
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA TO ITS NORTH WHICH WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THE SHOWERS AND TSRA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING OF SUNDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN OVERNIGHT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST. WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND THEN
VEER MORE INTO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10
KTS OR LESS.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
OVERTURNED BY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SOME ELEVATED HAILERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A POOL OF UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST GETS LIFTED
ABOVE THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING OVER CENTRAL IL. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO
REDEVELOP.

WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT REMAINING IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. THESE WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT VERY FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A FAVORED TIMEFRAME
FOR HEAVIER RAIN AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW COMES INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND ERODE THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER HIGH OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL OTHER MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER WESTERLIES THAT WILL LIE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THEIR ATTENDING COLD FRONTS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...AND THIS CONSTITUES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE...THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WEST
COAST SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT BRINGING A FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH
INTO THE RIDGE...SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH HUMID WITH A WARMING TREND.

04

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

ILZ029-031-036-037-040-041-261145-
FULTON-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LINGER AND CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TONIGHT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ILZ027-028-030-038-042>046-048-053>057-062-063-068-073-261145-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
STARK-VERMILION-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LINGER AND CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TONIGHT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ILZ047-049-050-261145-
CASS-MORGAN-SCOTT-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.  AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY
ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBILITIES...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

ILZ051-052-061-066-067-071-072-261145-
CHRISTIAN-CLAY-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.  AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY
ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBILITIES...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1008 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N JACKSONVILLE        39.76N 90.23W
06/25/2011                   MORGAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR ROUTE 78 AND BALDWIN
            ROAD

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WINCHESTER              39.63N 90.46W
06/25/2011  M3.06 INCH       SCOTT              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7 AM. 1.96 INCHES BEFORE 430 PM...1.10
            INCHES SINCE THEN.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1122 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOGA                   39.32N 88.45W
06/25/2011                   CUMBERLAND         IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL STREETS COVERED WITH FLOWING WATER

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EFFINGHAM               39.12N 88.55W
06/25/2011                   EFFINGHAM          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STREET FLOODING IN EFFINGHAM

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     HAIL             LOUISVILLE              38.77N 88.51W
06/25/2011  M0.88 INCH       CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ILZ071>073-260615-
CLAY-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1211 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE...RICHLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLNEY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SUMNER...
  CHAUNCEY...
  BRIDGEPORT...
  LAWRENCEVILLE...
  ST. FRANCISVILLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...RED HILLS STATE PARK...PETROLIA...
MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT...BILLETT AND LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3860 8828 3885 8826 3885 8752 3872 8750
      3867 8754 3866 8760 3864 8761 3862 8761
      3859 8762 3856 8766 3856 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 281DEG 38KT 3873 8800

CHS