Areal Flood Warning 25, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN TRENDS...
PLUS TO LOWER THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT.

ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOODING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA...WHICH HAD ALREADY
RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY AND WAS PICKING UP
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES. NORTHERN CWA HAS MAINLY BEEN SEEING LIGHTER
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

LATEST RUC/HRRR SHOWING THE STORMS ESTABLISHING MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BULK OF THE RAIN
CENTERED SOUTH OF I-72 BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE IN THAT AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE A LOT COOLER THAN PROJECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CWA...HAD TO ADJUST THE LOWS WHICH WERE ALREADY
BEING MET IN A FEW AREAS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OR FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND THE COMPLEX
OF STORMS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINS WERE OCCURRING TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN OVER A SUFFICIENT LAYER TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED AT SPI AND
DECATUR. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. TIMING OF NEXT AREA OF TSRA NOT HANDLED
WELL BY THE MODELS BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE THREAT STARTS TO INCREASE
TOWARDS LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AT AROUND
10 KTS...AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON SUNDAY.

SMITH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
OVERTURNED BY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SOME ELEVATED HAILERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A POOL OF UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST GETS LIFTED
ABOVE THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING OVER CENTRAL IL. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO
REDEVELOP.

WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT REMAINING IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. THESE WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT VERY FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A FAVORED TIMEFRAME
FOR HEAVIER RAIN AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW COMES INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND ERODE THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER HIGH OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL OTHER MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER WESTERLIES THAT WILL LIE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THEIR ATTENDING COLD FRONTS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...AND THIS CONSTITUES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE...THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WEST
COAST SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT BRINGING A FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH
INTO THE RIDGE...SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH HUMID WITH A WARMING TREND.

04

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

ILZ029-031-036-037-040-041-261145-
FULTON-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LINGER AND CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TONIGHT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ILZ027-028-030-038-042>046-048-053>057-062-063-068-073-261145-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
STARK-VERMILION-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LINGER AND CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TONIGHT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ILZ047-049-050-261145-
CASS-MORGAN-SCOTT-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.  AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY
ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBILITIES...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

ILZ051-052-061-066-067-071-072-261145-
CHRISTIAN-CLAY-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.  AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY
ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBILITIES...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
106 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE MASON              38.97N 88.60W
06/26/2011                   EFFINGHAM          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROUTE 37 NEAR I-57 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
107 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLORA                   38.67N 88.48W
06/26/2011  E2.00 INCH       CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

25

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