Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2011
Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL
NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Jun 17, 2011, 9:33 PM CDT for Morgan County, Sangamon County, Illinois. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 17, 2011, 9:33 PM CDT (02:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 17, 2011, 10:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- NWS Lincoln, IL
Counties Morgan County, IL, Sangamon County, IL
The radar
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 601 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 644 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 27 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 17, 8:46 PM CDT, 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 8:46 PM CDT, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 846 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 846 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IL REMAINS FROM AROUND PITTSFIELD TO PARIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTH HAS PASSED MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA NOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING POPS BASED ON THESE ISSUES. OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BLOWN UP ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE/PROPAGATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS UNSTABLE AIR INTO AND OVER THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW FAR NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THESE STORMS WILL GET AS WE ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT UNDER THE AXIS OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY IN HALF AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND LIKELYS IN THE SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. 04 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 615 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE MUDDIED UP FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ONE MCS TRAVELED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SECONDARY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE SOUTH OF SPI/DEC/CMI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MISS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME CLEARING/AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER MO WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF ELEVATED MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND LIFTS PARCELS ATOP THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING... THEN BRING TEMPO THUNDER TO AT LEAST SPI/DEC AROUND 06Z. MEAN WIND FIELDS SUGGEST AS EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION ELEMENT. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP PIA/BMI/CMI IN THE VCTS CATEGORY UNTIL STORM EVOLUTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. WILL ALSO INDICATE SOME MVFR FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY DAWN. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTION MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT AND THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES OUT WEST. 04 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WAS ACROSS MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS LAID OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE CWA APPARENTLY BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. WITH THE BOUNDARIES REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER MCS FORMS TO OUR WEST. THIS IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME...AND WILL ADJUST THE EVENING GRIDS AT THE LAST MINUTE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF AGREEMENT BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY BE IN PLAY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DESTABLIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...WHICH HINGES ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES IN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SOUTH WITH THIS LOW. HPC QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS TRACK...SUGGESTING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WILL NOT GO QUITE THIS FAR YET...BUT HAVE BOOSTED QPF TOTALS FOR SUNDAY TO AROUND 3/4 INCH OR SO AND WILL REFINE THIS LATER AS THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES BECOME CLEARER. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER 1.7 INCHES BY THEN...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AS A RESULT. WILL FAVOR A MAV/MET BLEND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY PUSHING IT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS. WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WARRANT LINGERING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. GEELHART && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 3:40 PM CDT, 5 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ILZ029-031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-181100- CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM PEORIA AND DOWN STREAM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM RISK. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ILZ027-028-030-038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073- 181100- CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT- DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL- MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-STARK- VERMILION- 340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM RISK. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. HJS
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 17, 9:33 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 933 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ILZ050-051-180330- MORGAN-SANGAMON- 933 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN AND WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT... AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODSON...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN MORGAN AND SANGAMON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WOODSON...FRANKLIN...ALEXANDER...NEW BERLIN...LOAMI AND CHATHAM... SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. LAT...LON 3988 8954 3953 8955 3953 9020 3974 9037 TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 250DEG 27KT 3965 9023 CHURCHILL
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 10:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon | 44 min |
| Jun 17, 10:44 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon | 4 hr |
| Jun 17, 11:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Sangamon | 55 min |
| Jun 18, 12:26 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Sangamon | 37 min |
| Jun 18, 12:49 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Sangamon | 4 hr |
| Jun 18, 1:42 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Cass, Morgan | 3 hr |
| Jun 18, 2:27 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Effingham, Jasper | 37 min |
| Jun 18, 2:32 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon | 20 hr |
| Jun 18, 2:46 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Effingham, Jasper, Lawrence and 2 more | 12 hr |
| Jun 18, 6:49 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Morgan | 56 min |
| Jun 18, 8:51 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | ILX | Clay, Richland | 16 days |
| Jun 18, 2:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Watch | ILX | Christian, Clay, Effingham, Jasper, Lawrence, Morgan and 4 more | 17 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.