Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Lincoln, IL

394 
WWUS53 KILX 180804
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

ILC049-079-180813-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-110618T0815Z/
JASPER IL-EFFINGHAM IL-
304 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EFFINGHAM AND NORTHWESTERN
JASPER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LIKELY WITH 
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 830 AM THIS MORNING.

LAT...LON 3892 8880 3916 8880 3921 8847 3917 8847
      3917 8834 3901 8812 3892 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 299DEG 22KT 3907 8809 3893 8852

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 846 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF IL REMAINS FROM AROUND PITTSFIELD TO PARIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE NORTH HAS PASSED MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA NOW. WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING POPS BASED ON THESE ISSUES. OVERNIGHT...THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BLOWN UP ON THE
WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE/PROPAGATE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS UNSTABLE
AIR INTO AND OVER THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW FAR NORTH INTO
CENTRAL IL THESE STORMS WILL GET AS WE ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT UNDER THE
AXIS OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA
ROUGHLY IN HALF AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND LIKELYS IN THE
SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40KT
LOW-LEVEL JET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINE UP ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY PREVIOUS STORMS AND WILL MAINLY
IMPACT KSPI AND KDEC AS IT TRACKS E/SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO THUNDER AT BOTH SITES ACCORDINGLY...FOCUSING ON
THE 06Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME FOR THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION. FURTHER
NORTH...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE I-74 TERMINALS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL. ALREADY SEEING VISBYS BEGINNING TO DROP AS TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS DECREASE. OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING
BEHIND A MID-LEVEL OVERCAST AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 06Z
SUN...SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
06Z TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10KT.

BARNES
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WAS ACROSS MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY
HAS NOW PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS LAID OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE CWA APPARENTLY BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. WITH
THE BOUNDARIES REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
ISSUE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS
EVENING...AS ANOTHER MCS FORMS TO OUR WEST. THIS IS PROJECTED TO
ROLL ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO WITH
HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME...AND WILL ADJUST THE EVENING GRIDS AT
THE LAST MINUTE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF AGREEMENT BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
MAY BE IN PLAY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
DESTABLIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...WHICH HINGES ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
LINGERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES IN
THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NAM MODEL IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SOUTH WITH THIS LOW. HPC QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THIS TRACK...SUGGESTING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WILL NOT GO QUITE THIS FAR YET...BUT
HAVE BOOSTED QPF TOTALS FOR SUNDAY TO AROUND 3/4 INCH OR SO AND WILL
REFINE THIS LATER AS THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES BECOME CLEARER. PWAT
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER 1.7 INCHES BY THEN...SO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...WITH THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AS A RESULT. WILL
FAVOR A MAV/MET BLEND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...LEANING TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
PUSHING IT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS. WEAK TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WARRANT LINGERING SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHOULD BE CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSED BY AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

ILZ029-031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-181100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST TO
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM PEORIA AND
DOWN STREAM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM RISK.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

ILZ027-028-030-038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-
181100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-STARK-
VERMILION-
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST TO
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM RISK.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

ILZ050-051-180330-
MORGAN-SANGAMON-
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN AND WESTERN
SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODSON...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN MORGAN AND SANGAMON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
WOODSON...FRANKLIN...ALEXANDER...NEW BERLIN...LOAMI AND CHATHAM...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3988 8954 3953 8955 3953 9020 3974 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 250DEG 27KT 3965 9023

CHURCHILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE WAVERLY            39.62N 89.91W
06/17/2011                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO FEET OF WATER OVER WAVERLY/NEW BERLIN BLACKTOP

&&

LAUFENBERG