Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
619 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE STATE.
HAVE HAD A BIT OF CLEARING OVER THE AREA...WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED NEAR GALESBURG. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME SORT
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA AROUND THE CURRENT
TIME...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THAT AREA INCREASES TO AROUND
30-40 KNOTS. INDEED...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING
FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO PLAYING A
LARGE ROLE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

EXACT PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT APPEARS TO BE RE-
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ROUGHLY FROM DANVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF
PITTSFIELD...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY.
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST CURVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. WILL GO WITH BROAD 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
BOUNDARIES AND UNEVEN DESTABLIZATION...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

00Z MODELS INDICATING MOST LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD
BE TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FROM THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THIS EVENING...AND CONFINE THEM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74
OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGING DRIFTING BACK OVERHEAD...STORM TRACK
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD DEAL LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY. MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER RIDGING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
TREND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING...WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND A COLD FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY ON TOP OF IT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LINGER IT IN OUR AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXISTING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE...AND POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PUSHING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. WORST OF THE FIRST
BATCH SHOULD JUST MISS KSPI TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS...BUT A SECOND BATCH MAY ARRIVE AROUND 1330-1400Z IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. KPIA WILL ALSO SEE A CLOSE PASS FROM THE SECOND
BATCH OF STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT THESE
SITES AS WELL AS KBMI...BUT HELD ONTO VCTS FURTHER EAST FOR NOW...AS
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR EAST. THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL BY ABOUT 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTERWARD THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

GEELHART

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILZ027>031-036-037-061100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-74...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL DIMINISH AT HENRY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LINGER DOWNSTREAM AT PEORIA THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

ILZ040-041-047>050-061100-
CASS-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING...AND IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ILZ042-051>057-061-061100-
CHRISTIAN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-SANGAMON-
SHELBY-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING WEST OF I-55...
AND IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS EAST OF I-55. ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ILZ038-043>046-061100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-MCLEAN-PIATT-VERMILION-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WHILE A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-061100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FLOODING ALONG THE WABASH RIVER WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

GEELHART

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILZ051-052-061-051245-
CHRISTIAN-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN
CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHERN SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DIVERNON...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIRDEN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DIVERNON...
  PAWNEE...
  KINCAID...
  MORRISONVILLE...
  TAYLORVILLE...
  ASSUMPTION...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...THAYER...GLENARM...SICILY...
TOVEY...PALMER AND VANDERVILLE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3935 8947 3939 8954 3952 8954 3952 8977
      3957 8986 3974 8977 3957 8900 3934 8917
      3934 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 288DEG 28KT 3960 8968

BARKER