Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Lincoln, IL

521 
WWUS53 KILX 051023
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
523 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILC137-171-051100-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-110605T1100Z/
MORGAN IL-SCOTT IL-
523 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCOTT AND
WESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 522 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NAPLES...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINCHESTER...NAPLES...BLUFFS...EXETER...CHAPIN...ALSEY...WOODSON...
  MURRAYVILLE...MANCHESTER...OXVILLE...CONCORD...MERRITT...
  RIGGSTON...GLASGOW...LYNNVILLE...SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...LAKE
  JACKSONVILLE AND NORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9063 3978 9061 3984 9056 3988 9059
      3988 9057 3987 9057 3988 9035 3953 9009
      3952 9056 3970 9065 3972 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 304DEG 20KT 3978 9060
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SMITH

214 
WWUS53 KILX 051046
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
546 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILC137-171-051100-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-110605T1100Z/
MORGAN IL-SCOTT IL-
546 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCOTT AND
WESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 545 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MANCHESTER...WOODSON...MURRAYVILLE...SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...LAKE
  JACKSONVILLE AND NORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9063 3978 9061 3984 9056 3988 9059
      3988 9057 3987 9057 3988 9035 3953 9009
      3952 9056 3970 9065 3972 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 307DEG 25KT 3970 9027
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
218 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE STATE.
HAVE HAD A BIT OF CLEARING OVER THE AREA...WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED NEAR GALESBURG. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME SORT
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA AROUND THE CURRENT
TIME...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THAT AREA INCREASES TO AROUND
30-40 KNOTS. INDEED...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING
FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO PLAYING A
LARGE ROLE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

EXACT PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT APPEARS TO BE RE-
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ROUGHLY FROM DANVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF
PITTSFIELD...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY.
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST CURVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. WILL GO WITH BROAD 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
BOUNDARIES AND UNEVEN DESTABLIZATION...BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

00Z MODELS INDICATING MOST LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD
BE TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FROM THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THIS EVENING...AND CONFINE THEM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74
OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGING DRIFTING BACK OVERHEAD...STORM TRACK
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD DEAL LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY. MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER RIDGING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
TREND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING...WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND A COLD FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY ON TOP OF IT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LINGER IT IN OUR AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXISTING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE...AND POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1124 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011...FOR THE 06Z TAFS

RAIN AND STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY ENDED AROUND THE TAF SITES. WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR MORNING CONVECTION IN SPI...CLOSEST TO WHERE A COMPLEX
MAY PASS FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME
ACTIVE WITH STORMS ONCE AGAIN. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST OR CALM OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
THIS EVENING. MOST FOG SHOULD BE MVFR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
IFR LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE.

SHIMON

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-051100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN...MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061-051100-
CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE WABASH RIVER BASIN...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILZ040-051000-
SCHUYLER-
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
CDT...

AT 354 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA...OR 30 MILES WEST
OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BROOKLYN...
  LITTLETON...
  RUSHVILLE...
  CAMDEN...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4028 9046 4018 9046 4017 9032 4008 9044
      4005 9044 3998 9053 4004 9068 4007 9068
      4008 9071 4010 9071 4010 9088 4011 9091
      4028 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 288DEG 20KT 4037 9123

SMITH