Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
TRACK E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WILL BE FOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND A HIGH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ONCE THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BROKEN...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER 5 PM. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NAM/GFS/4KM WRF-NMM ALL AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE KILX CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
EVENING...THEN ONLY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF I-57
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND BEGIN TRACKING E/NE TOWARD ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS CONCERNING EXACT TRACK OF
LOW...WITH GFS TAKING IT IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF PUSHING IT
NORTHEASTERLY INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE FLAT ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...FAVOR THE ECMWF IN THIS CASE.
WITH SURFACE LOW ONCE AGAIN TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF PEORIA AND SOARING INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE E/SE CWA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POSITION OF MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY
WAVE...GFS PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALONG I-70. ECMWF IS
PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO HERE...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. FURTHER NORTH...THINK A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. ANY LULL IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPS PULL THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE BOARD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SO FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE ON MANY AREA STREAMS/RIVERS.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 104 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

SPI...DEC AND CMI WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT LIFT OVER THE SITES IN
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PIA AND BMI SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPI...DEC AND CMI SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA OR NEW THE WARM FRONT
TO THE WEST AND MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE AREA. HAVE TIMED PCPN
INTO EACH SITE FOR A 3HR PERIOD AROUND 00Z. ONCE PCPN HAS
ENDED...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES BY AND
LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1KFT WILL RETURN. THIS CLOUD HEIGHT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING. PIA
AND BMI WILL SEE RAIN BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT
UNSURE ON AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR AREA...SO WENT WITH
VCTS FOR THOSE TWO SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THEN LOWER CLOUDS WITH
WINDS OUT OF NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CLOUD COVER HEIGHT COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
MORNING AS WELL.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-201100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN
TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
AND EAST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              39.63N 90.46W
04/19/2011  M0.50 INCH       SCOTT              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LAUFENBERG

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