Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Lincoln, IL

780 
WWUS53 KILX 191409
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILC025-049-191419-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110419T1430Z/
CLAY IL-EFFINGHAM IL-
909 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EFFINGHAM AND
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3891 8870 3891 8881 3896 8881 3914 8844
      3888 8836 3881 8870 3882 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 243DEG 44KT 3901 8841

$$

BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EJECT NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STAYING NEAR IL. SPC CONTINUES MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING SE OF I-55 WITH SLIGHT RISK FROM
I-55 NW TO GALESBURG. SPC IS ALSO ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THIS MORNING SW OF LINCOLN WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MO AND MOVING NE AT 40 MPH TOWARD SW IL.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF IL WHILE MOST THUNDERSTORMS (A FEW
HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE) OCCURING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
DEVELOPING IN THE PAST HOUR OVER CENTRAL MO. STRONG 993 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM
FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN WARM
SECTOR OF SOUTHERN IL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL IL WITH TEMPS FROM 35 TO 45F
AND EVEN HAD SNOWFLAKES MIXED WITH THE RAIN AT ALTONA IN NORTHERN
KNOX COUNTY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. COLDER AIR USHEREND INTO
CENTRAL IL ON NE WINDS AROUND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SE ONTARIO.

00Z MODELS TRENDING QUICKER WITH EJECTING LOW PRESSURE NE FROM OK
PANHANDLE INTO SW IL BY SUNSET AND EAST OF DETROIT MI BY SUNRISE
WED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...BUT DOES NOT QUITE
GET INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F
AGAIN WHILE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F IN SE IL LIKE YESTERDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIKELY TODAY AND SEVERE RISK OF
LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING SW OF LINCOLN. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES A RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK SE OF I-55 AS COLD FRONT SLIDES
EAST OVER IL THIS EVENING. MODERATE RISK SE OF I-55 HAS 45% OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH 10% RISK OF 2 INCH OR LARGE HAIL AND
65 KNOT OR STRONGER WINDS. ALSO 10% RISK OF TORNADOES.

PER SPC...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRIMARILY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE LYING FROM THE OZARKS EWD INV OF THE OH VALLEY.
PERSISTENT EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A CAPPED
WARM SECTOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TIME...EXPECT ASCENT
FOCUSED INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
TO PERMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY
FIRST OCCUR OVER ERN OK AND VICINITY...WITH INITIAL STORM MODE
LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR STORM
MODE IS EXPECTED...AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT
AND CAPPING LIKELY LIMITS INITIATION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY SWD A
BIT INTO NERN TX THOUGH DRIER/MORE CAPPED AIRMASS WITH SWD EXTENT
SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX.

WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.  GREATEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO INDIANA AHEAD
OF THE NEWD-MOVING LOW...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED.  WITH TIME HOWEVER...AS STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AND BECOME THE MORE PREVALENT SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE MID
MS/TN/OH VALLEYS. THOUGH SOME EVENTUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MODELS QUICKER MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF IL OVERNIGHT AND
LOWERED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL WED WITH DECREASE CLOUDS AS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN IL/IN LATE
WED NIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER CENTRAL IL WITH UPPER 30S IN SE IL.
FROST WILL BE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM LINCOLN NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY DRIFTS EAST ACORSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THU AS FRONTAL STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS TO RETURN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THU AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS
THEN. COULD BE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SW AREAS THU NIGHT
AND ACROSS AREA FRI AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IL BY FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH IL STAYING IN A SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
LOCKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR CENTRAL IL. GULF OF MEXICO
REMAINS WIDE OPEN TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO IL
AHEAD OF EACH LOW PRESSURE THAT EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONGEST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE TUE/WED. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
AGGREVATE RIVER LEVELS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RIVERS IN CENTRAL IL
TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CURRENTLY
SW OF I-74 TO THE MO BORDER WILL TRACK NE AT 40 MPH AND AFFECT THE
CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIFR CEILINGS AT BMI WITH 400 FOOT CEILING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
POSSIBLE ADDITION OF HAIL AT SPI AND DEC BUT STRONGEST STORMS
CURRENTLY CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-70/ST LOUIS IN
SOUTHERN IL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 FROM JUST SOUTH OF
ST LOUIS TO JUST NORTH OF LAWRENCEVILLE...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG 994 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN KS/OK BORDER LIFTS NE INTO SW IL BY SUNSET. WILL BE A LULL
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FIRE UP DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE AND RACE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS SE OF I-55 AT DEC AND CMI IN MODERATE RISK AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT
PULLING COLD FRONT SE OF IL. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BRISK EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS TO TURN SOUTH ALONG I-72 TAF SITES DURING THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE STAYING EAST AT PIA AND BMI. WINDS TURN WEST
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING TONIGHT AND STILL BRISK WITH SUSTAINED 15
KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

HUETTL

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
526 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-201100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
526 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF I-74 WHERE
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
UNTIL 8 PM. A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 10 AM THIS MORNING.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
526 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF I-74 WHERE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL...VERY STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES AS IT EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 1030 AM THIS MORNING.

HUETTL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
500 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILZ042-047>051-191130-
CASS-LOGAN-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
500 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...SANGAMON...SCOTT...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHERN MENARD AND SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 457 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALSEY...
  WINCHESTER...
  EXETER...
  MANCHESTER...
  CHAPIN...
  WOODSON...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED
INCLUDE...GLASGOW...RIGGSTON...MERRITT...LYNNVILLE...LAKE
JACKSONVILLE... SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...NEW BERLIN...AND SHERMAN.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3982 9058 3984 9057 4006 8970 3987 8932
      3970 8952 3954 8955 3952 9002 3951 9052
      3952 9054 3980 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 247DEG 33KT 3959 9055

SHIMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
710 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 AM     HAIL             JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W
04/19/2011  E1.50 INCH       MORGAN             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
729 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HAIL             BLUFFS                  39.75N 90.53W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE QUANTITY OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH CAR DAMAGE.

0543 AM     HAIL             GLASGOW                 39.55N 90.48W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AJ