Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Lincoln, IL

725 
WWUS53 KILX 132013
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

ILC143-132022-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0213.000000T0000Z-110813T2030Z/
PEORIA IL-
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4069 8933 4062 8933 4062 8931 4050 8927
      4055 8974 4056 8971 4055 8968 4057 8965
      4060 8966 4063 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 274DEG 27KT 4057 8950

$$

ILC179-132030-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0213.000000T0000Z-110813T2030Z/
TAZEWELL IL-
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
TAZEWELL COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
MORTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TREMONT...MORTON...MACKINAW AND DEER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 8933 4062 8933 4062 8931 4050 8927
      4055 8974 4056 8971 4055 8968 4057 8965
      4060 8966 4063 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 274DEG 27KT 4057 8950
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
146 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WAS BEING
DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
IOWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
INTO TONIGHT WITH FROPA...AS WELL AS WITH A FROPA IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PERIOD IS APT TO BE RATHER QUIET
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FEATURES
EXPECTED TO IMPACT FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO
DO NOT REALLY HAVE A MODEL PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE AND ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH FROPA...AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 35 KTS
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY WEAK
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM WSW TO WNW AFTER FROPA. THE LACK OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD
UNLESS A GOOD COLD POOL GETS ESTABLISHED. IN ANY EVENT...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS UNTIL FROPA...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

HAVE REMOVED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THAT WERE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WAS...AND STILL IS...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
MCS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MCS WILL STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE STRONGER WAA
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG WAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TOP/FLATTEN THE MEAN WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. PLAN
TO MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS FROPA.
ANOTHER WAVE TOPPING THE MEAN RIDGE BY SATURDAY MAY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACTS SHOULD OCCUR
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
TROUBLESOME TS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HESITATE TO PUT IN TEMPOS FOR
TOO LONG AS TO SCT NATURE. HOWEVER...MUCH STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM...BETTER INSTABILITY...AND WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LEANS
TOWARDS AT LEAST 3 HR TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ILX
TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO AMEND TIMING TO EXTEND...BUT MAY ALSO LOSE
A BIT WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. NEXT ISSUE OVERALL WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING VIS LOSS...PARTICULARLY ANY TERMINALS THAT
SEE AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER. KEEPING THE LOWEST VIS
PIA/BMI/CMI AROUND DAWN AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF...MORE LIKELY FOR THE RA...AND THE SUBSEQUENT LOWER CIGS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1108 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1108 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...AND AGAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR ACTIVATION
WOULD BE FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

HJS