Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
814 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ABATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLY
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN SOME WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN WARM...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH SUNDAY...IT SLOWS
DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PROLONGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOC SFC FRONT MOVING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THE UPR TROUGH LAGGING QUITE AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT WITH UPR LOW AND LEE REMNANTS CUTTING
OFF AND PUSHING NE INTO SE OHIO VALLEY...AS SHOWERS LINGERING FROM
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH BEGIN TO EXIT THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE UPR LOW WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLICATED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM AND REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BROAD CONSENSUS THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. GIVEN LATEST FORECAST
POSITIONS THAT WOULD PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH PRECIPITATION
DECREASING IN COVERAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN
TEMPERATURE. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STILL FLOATING AROUND AND THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 71. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAST THE
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH AND DEPENDING ON TIMING...PCPN
COULD LINGER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WILL THEREFORE LINGER A VCTS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE LATTER PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>063-070>072-077-050300-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
1048 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ094>100-OHZ064-065-073-074-078>082-088-050300-
OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1048 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ060>062-070-071-040245-
BUTLER OH-GREENE OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-WARREN OH-
957 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARREN...
SOUTHEASTERN PREBLE...MONTGOMERY...WESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

AT 954 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JACKSONBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...SOUTH MIDDLETOWN...
GRATIS...MIDDLETOWN...FRANKLIN...CARLISLE...SPRINGBORO...
MIAMISBURG...WEST CARROLLTON...MORAINE...TROTWOOD...OAKWOOD AND
NORTHRIDGE.

ALSO...POAST TOWN HEIGHTS...FARMERSVILLE...GERMANTOWN...NEW
LEBANON...BROOKVILLE...DREXEL...WOODBOURNE-HYDE PARK AND UNION ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3992 8437 3992 8432 3969 8399 3939 8450
      3953 8465

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1022 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     VANDALIA                39.88N 84.19W
09/03/2011  E60 MPH          MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1058 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     DONNELSVILLE            39.92N 83.95W
09/03/2011  E60 MPH          CLARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALANR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1117 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ042-051-060-040415-
DARKE OH-MIAMI OH-PREBLE OH-
1117 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PREBLE...WESTERN MIAMI
AND SOUTHERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1116 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW MADISON...ARCANUM
AND GREENVILLE.

ALSO...ELDORADO...WEST MANCHESTER...CASTINE...WAYNE LAKES...ITHACA...
GORDON...ABBOTTSVILLE AND PITSBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3994 8481 4017 8455 4000 8435 3992 8448
      3992 8449 3991 8449 3977 8469 3991 8482

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1122 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-040415-
SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-
1122 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GALLATIN...
CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN OWEN AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM
EDT...

AT 1120 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 71 AT MILE MARKER 40...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CARROLLTON...VEVAY AND
WARSAW.

ALSO...LOCUST...PRESTONVILLE...ENGLISH...GENERAL BUTLER STATE PARK...
LANGSTAFF...WORTHVILLE...BRAYTOWN AND EASTERDAY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3875 8526 3870 8521 3877 8521 3888 8499
      3870 8479 3869 8478 3865 8478 3857 8508
      3859 8509 3858 8521 3863 8523 3871 8532

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1125 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ051-061-040430-
MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
1125 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1124 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BROOKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ENGLEWOOD...WEST
MILTON...VANDALIA AND TIPP CITY.

ALSO...PHILLIPSBURG...FORT MCKINLEY...NORTHVIEW...GARLAND...UNION...
LUDLOW FALLS...GINGHAMSBURG AND PHONETON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3990 8407 3975 8435 3986 8448 3990 8449
      3992 8447 3992 8443 3995 8443 4006 8428