Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Wilmington, OH

372 
WWUS51 KILN 040056
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
856 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHC021-109-149-040106-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-110904T0100Z/
CHAMPAIGN OH-MIAMI OH-SHELBY OH-
856 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND NORTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
900 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4013 8380 4002 8407 4012 8417 4027 8400
      4027 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 233DEG 14KT 4014 8403

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
814 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ABATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLY
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN SOME WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN WARM...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH SUNDAY...IT SLOWS
DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PROLONGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOC SFC FRONT MOVING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THE UPR TROUGH LAGGING QUITE AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT WITH UPR LOW AND LEE REMNANTS CUTTING
OFF AND PUSHING NE INTO SE OHIO VALLEY...AS SHOWERS LINGERING FROM
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH BEGIN TO EXIT THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE UPR LOW WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLICATED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM AND REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BROAD CONSENSUS THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. GIVEN LATEST FORECAST
POSITIONS THAT WOULD PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH PRECIPITATION
DECREASING IN COVERAGE.

CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN
TEMPERATURE. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STILL FLOATING AROUND AND THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 71. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAST THE
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH AND DEPENDING ON TIMING...PCPN
COULD LINGER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WILL THEREFORE LINGER A VCTS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE LATTER PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
752 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
556 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ045-046-032215-
DELAWARE OH-UNION OH-
556 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PHARISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RICHWOOD.

ALSO...PHARISBURG AND MAGNETIC SPRINGS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4045 8324 4045 8321 4033 8315 4027 8340
      4038 8347 4048 8325 4048 8324

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ026-044-045-032230-
HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-UNION OH-
612 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN UNION...
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIG
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING RIDGEWAY...ESSEX...BYHALIA...HEPBURN AND MOUNT
VICTORY.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4055 8341 4051 8341 4051 8327 4050 8326
      4038 8364 4053 8371 4065 8342

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ045-046-032330-
DELAWARE OH-UNION OH-
700 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 659 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RICHWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RICHWOOD.

ALSO...ESSEX...PHARISBURG...MAGNETIC SPRINGS AND RADNOR ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4051 8324 4045 8324 4044 8311 4037 8309
      4033 8343 4051 8341

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
824 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              40.10N 84.62W
09/03/2011  E1.00 INCH       DARKE              OH   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ051-052-040115-
CHAMPAIGN OH-MIAMI OH-
838 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND WESTERN
CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CASSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ST. PARIS.

ALSO...FLETCHER...CHRISTIANSBURG...KISER LAKE STATE PARK...
CARYSVILLE...MILLERSTOWN...ROSEWOOD AND WESTVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4026 8399 4009 8379 4002 8412 4011 8419
      4019 8409 4018 8408 4019 8402 4024 8402

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
840 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

OHZ026-044-045-040115-
HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-UNION OH-
840 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN UNION...
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
EDT...

AT 838 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RUSHSYLVANIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING BIG SPRINGS...RIDGEWAY...MOUNT VICTORY...
BYHALIA...HEPBURN AND ESSEX.

LAT...LON 4051 8341 4051 8329 4045 8326 4040 8374
      4053 8379 4064 8342