Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Wilmington, OH

637 
WWUS51 KILN 260143
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

OHC021-023-091-097-159-260200-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110526T0200Z/
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-UNION OH-
943 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
OHIO...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND EASTERN
CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 942 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MECHANICSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH LEWISBURG AND MARYSVILLE.

IN ADDITION...LAFAYETTE...STATE ROUTE 29 AT STATE ROUTE 38...
PLUMWOOD...WOODSTOCK...STATE ROUTE 4 AT STATE ROUTE 161...ROSEDALE...
MIDDLEBURG AND EAST LIBERTY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8339 3993 8384 4003 8386 4019 8370
      4039 8359 4039 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 242DEG 37KT 4011 8355

$$

HATZOS

547 
WWUS51 KILN 260156
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

OHC021-023-091-097-159-260206-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110526T0200Z/
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-UNION OH-
956 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...
NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND EASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3990 8339 3993 8384 4003 8386 4019 8370
      4039 8359 4039 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 242DEG 37KT 4017 8339

$$

HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
807 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A LARGE EASTERN UNITED
STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND WESTERN UNITED STATES LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5 DEG TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAIN COOLED AIR SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TRIED TO RAISE TO 100 POP OVER
WESTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELL MOVING INTO FRANKLIN
COUNTY AT ISSUANCE OF AFD HAS HISTORY OF BASEBALL TO GRAPEFRUIT
HAIL AND 70+ WINDS. THE REST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ANY STORMS WORKING IN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STRONG OR STRENGTHEN.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

A VOLATILE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WFO ILN FORECAST AREA NOW ALMOST
COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT AS SHIFTED INTO
NORTHERN OHIO WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH
OVER MISSOURI IS ALLOWING BOTH A BODILY INCREASE IN LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH IL/IN ATOP THE EVOLVING WARM
SECTOR. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB RELEASE FROM WFO ILN SHOWS SBCAPE TO 3300
J/KG...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35KTS...ALREADY SUPPORTING STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL
PARAMETERS FROM THIS SOUNDING SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

REFERENCE THE STRONGLY WORDED PRODUCTS FROM STORM PREDICTION
CENTER /SWODY1 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND RECENTLY ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH/ A VERY ACTIVE EVENING AND NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH 03Z SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG REMAINING AND AMPLE SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR ESPECIALLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150
M2/S2...SO SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE.SPC
4-KM NMM- WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE LARGER SCALE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER IS CONTAINED IN THE
SECONDARY WAVES. GIVEN HOW CLEAN THE WARM SECTOR IS /LACK OF
CONVECTION OVER FAR SRN IND AND OHIO/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION YET TO OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS RATHER
HIGH...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 00Z OR 03Z IN THE TRI STATE
AREA...EXTENDING NORTH TO COVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. 25.09Z SPC SREF PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SIG
TOR INGREDIENTS ARE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA /WESTERN OHIO AND TRI-
STATE AREA/ THROUGH 03Z...SO A NIGHT TO BE AWARE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH THE TWO WAVES OF
STORMS EXPECTED...BUT DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A THREAT AREA RIGHT
NOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. STORMS SHOULD BE FAST MOVING GIVEN MEAN WEAN
FIELDS ON CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO WOULD BE A TRAINING
SETUP THAT WOULD NEED TO BE ESTABILISHED...AND THIS TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN WIND
FIELDS WILL STILL BE STRONG...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH THOUGH GIVEN
FORCING SIGNALS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...COUPLED WITH
SREF PROBABILILITIES. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGES THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST...SO WILL GO WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY GOOD...WITH DEPICTIONS
OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. FORCING IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED...SO HAVE
NOT GONE HIGHER THAN 30 OR 40 PERCENT. AFTER THIS...AN IMPRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST TEMPERED JUST BELOW THE RAW ECMWF TEMPERATURE VALUES...BUT
THIS IS A SLIGHT BIT HIGHER THAN MOS/MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AFTER
THIS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE PERIOD
BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO SHOULD NOTE THAT THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY
AT SUCH A SCALE GIVEN THE GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT DRY
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOMETHING FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER CWA WILL REMAIN N OF CVG/ILN BUT A SUPERCELL WILL
CROSS INTO RICKENBACKER AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO BETWEEN
1 AND 01:30Z. UPSTREAM CELLS WILL LIKELY GIVE A REPEAT TO KDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY NOT
COLUMBUS AFTER THIS INITIAL CELL MOVES THROUGH.

A MORE WIDESPREAD BUT MUCH LESS ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CROSS INTO THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS LOCATED AHEAD OF IT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CIGS WILL ONLY DROP BELOW VFR IN THE WORST OF THE CONVECTION.
VSBYS WILL DROP A BIT MORE EASILY IN AND BEHIND SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND THEN REBOUND WITH THE MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SCOURED OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/FRANKS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
841 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-270045-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
841 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

DUE TO THE REPEATED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
WEEK THERE IS ALSO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO INDIANA. DUE TO THE REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL
PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
850 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             XENIA                   39.69N 83.94W
05/25/2011  M2.00 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL INCREASED FROM HALF INCH TO 2.25, TREE REPORTED ON
            HOUSE 500-600 BLOCK N KING ST

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
852 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             DUBLIN                  39.81N 85.21W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       WAYNE              IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL HAIL.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
856 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             XENIA                   39.69N 83.94W
05/25/2011  E2.75 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO CARS
            AND OTHER FLAT SURFACES EXPOSED TO THE HAIL. TREE LIMBS
            4-5 INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN OFF. RAINFALL AMOUNT 0.90
            INCHES WITH THE STORM.

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
902 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             TIPP CITY               39.96N 84.18W
05/25/2011  E0.50 INCH       MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
911 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             ECONOMY                 39.98N 85.09W
05/25/2011  M1.00 INCH       WAYNE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ECONOMY AND WILLIAMSBURG.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
913 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TORNADO          1 SE FOREST             40.79N 83.50W
05/25/2011                   HARDIN             OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO OBSERVED BY FIRE DEPT PERSONNEL BRIEFLY TOUCHING
            DOWN IN FIELD. NO DAMAGE OBSERVED

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE ADA               40.73N 83.80W
05/25/2011                   HARDIN             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES/POWER LINES DOWN

&&

HUGHES