Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE ACTIVE AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
ARE ONGOING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. A TANDEM OF WEAK VORT MAXES
WILL SLIDE SE ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THESE
WEAK FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT ACRS THE REGION TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES PER 18Z
ILN SPECIAL SOUNDING...AROUND 3500 J/KG...ALONG WITH AMPLE
SHEAR...WILL RESULT IN MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL CLUSTERS. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 20 MPH...AND
THE THREAT THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE TRAINING STORMS...FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. HAVE GONE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WHERE FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACRS
THESE AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT. A SOUTHWARD TREND AND AN GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANES AND FORCING
WANES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL NOT BRING COMPLETE
DRY WEATHER AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK WX DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...MORE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE
HIGHER CHC FOR PCPN WILL TEMPER HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKY IN
NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS TO MOVE
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN WEST TO EAST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NCEP/HPC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

AN UPR LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE PULLED BACK WEST INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN. HAVE KEPT BOTH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS
INSTBY DECREASES WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS POISED AT THIS TIME TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT BY
THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A COOLING TREND
GIVEN CLOUDS...PCPN AND A NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW. COULD EVEN BE
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT EXTREME AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN
INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A KDAY TO KILN LINE. AREA OF PCPN SHOULD THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. TOUGH TO DISCOUNT THIS
COMPLETELY WITH HIGH BUILDING IN ALOFT BUT THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
TO SOME DEGREE ON HOW MUCH PCPN WE END UP GETTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HEDGE FOR NOW AND KEEP ANY CIGS VFR LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST BRING IN SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE ARE
LACKING A FORCING MECHANISM SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111330-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME
FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE WHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

KYZ097-099-100-OHZ079-081-102330-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWN...SOUTHWESTERN
ADAMS...NORTHEASTERN BRACKEN...NORTHEASTERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN
LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN GEORGETOWN AND MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RIPLEY...ABERDEEN...
MAYSVILLE...MANCHESTER AND TOLLESBORO.

ALSO...HIGGINSPORT...STONEY POINT...RUSSELLVILLE...DOVER...MINERVA...
REDOAK...SOUTH RIPLEY AND TUCKAHOE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3874 8353 3865 8344 3853 8353 3855 8367
      3871 8394 3883 8404 3899 8402 3899 8377

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHZ035-043-102315-
AUGLAIZE OH-SHELBY OH-
647 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND AUGLAIZE
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BUCKLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CRIDERSVILLE...
WAPAKONETA...WAYNESFIELD AND JACKSON CENTER.

ALSO...BUCKLAND...UNIOPOLIS...FRYBURG...ST. JOHNS AND MONTRA ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4066 8422 4066 8411 4065 8410 4065 8403
      4055 8388 4054 8401 4039 8401 4046 8418
      4066 8441 4069 8436 4069 8423

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     FLOOD            3 N KINGSTON            39.51N 82.92W
05/10/2011                   PICKAWAY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FT WATER FLOWING ACROSS HWY 159.

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
713 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             MAYSVILLE               38.63N 83.78W
05/10/2011  E0.50 INCH       MASON              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             MAYSVILLE               38.63N 83.78W
05/10/2011  E1.00 INCH       MASON              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

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