Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Wilmington, OH

961 
WWUS51 KILN 102045
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHC073-141-102130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110510T2130Z/
HOCKING OH-ROSS OH-
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ROSS AND SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF 
DOLLARS SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE. RADAR INDICATED THAT THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 
WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH FORK 
VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHILLICOTHE
RURAL AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE.

IN ADDITION...MASSIEVILLE...SCIOTO TRAIL STATE PARK...MOORESVILLE...
LONDONDERRY AND RICHMOND DALE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8267 3936 8274 3918 8276 3916 8277
      3917 8288 3926 8314 3948 8310 3942 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 286DEG 16KT 3934 8302

$$


BINAU

346 
WWUS51 KILN 102051
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHC073-141-102130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110510T2130Z/
HOCKING OH-ROSS OH-
451 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ROSS AND SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEVERE STORM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ROSS 
COUNTY. RADAR INDICATED THAT THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHILLICOTHE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ROSS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...INCLUDING MASSIEVILLE...SCIOTO TRAIL
STATE PARK...MOORESVILLE...RICHMOND DALE AND LONDONDERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8274 3918 8276 3916 8277 3917 8283
      3917 8289 3924 8308 3935 8302 3947 8302
      3942 8267 3936 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 284DEG 16KT 3934 8297

$$


BINAU

631 
WWUS51 KILN 102105
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHC073-141-102130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110510T2130Z/
HOCKING OH-ROSS OH-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ROSS AND SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED HAIL FROM QUARTER TO HALF 
DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WITH THE STORM CROSSING ROSS COUNTY. RADAR 
INDICATED THAT THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
MOORESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ROSS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...INCLUDING LONDONDERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8274 3919 8276 3919 8277 3921 8281
      3923 8288 3926 8298 3937 8295 3946 8295
      3942 8267 3936 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 276DEG 19KT 3936 8281

$$


BINAU

367 
WWUS51 KILN 102115
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHC073-141-102130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110510T2130Z/
HOCKING OH-ROSS OH-
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ROSS AND SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOORESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ROSS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8274 3919 8276 3922 8277 3923 8280
      3925 8284 3925 8289 3936 8288 3945 8289
      3942 8267 3936 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 276DEG 19KT 3935 8274

$$


BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE ACTIVE AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
ARE ONGOING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. A TANDEM OF WEAK VORT MAXES
WILL SLIDE SE ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THESE
WEAK FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT ACRS THE REGION TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES PER 18Z
ILN SPECIAL SOUNDING...AROUND 3500 J/KG...ALONG WITH AMPLE
SHEAR...WILL RESULT IN MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL CLUSTERS. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 20 MPH...AND
THE THREAT THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE TRAINING STORMS...FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. HAVE GONE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WHERE FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACRS
THESE AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT. A SOUTHWARD TREND AND AN GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANES AND FORCING
WANES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL NOT BRING COMPLETE
DRY WEATHER AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK WX DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...MORE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE
HIGHER CHC FOR PCPN WILL TEMPER HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKY IN
NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS TO MOVE
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN WEST TO EAST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NCEP/HPC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

AN UPR LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE PULLED BACK WEST INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN. HAVE KEPT BOTH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS
INSTBY DECREASES WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS POISED AT THIS TIME TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT BY
THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A COOLING TREND
GIVEN CLOUDS...PCPN AND A NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW. COULD EVEN BE
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT EXTREME AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN
INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A KDAY TO KILN LINE. AREA OF PCPN SHOULD THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. TOUGH TO DISCOUNT THIS
COMPLETELY WITH HIGH BUILDING IN ALOFT BUT THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
TO SOME DEGREE ON HOW MUCH PCPN WE END UP GETTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HEDGE FOR NOW AND KEEP ANY CIGS VFR LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST BRING IN SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE ARE
LACKING A FORCING MECHANISM SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111330-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME
FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE WHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             PIKETON                 39.07N 83.00W
05/10/2011  E0.50 INCH       PIKE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             3 S ROCKFORD            40.65N 84.65W
05/10/2011  E0.50 INCH       MERCER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               39.40N 83.18W
05/10/2011  E0.88 INCH       ROSS               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MPADGETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               39.40N 83.18W
05/10/2011  E1.00 INCH       ROSS               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

KYZ100-102130-
LEWIS KY-
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TOLLESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CAMP DIX AND HEAD OF
GRASSY.

ALSO...CHARTERS...PETERSVILLE...STRICKLETT...KINNICONICK...HARRIS AND
TANNERY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3839 8341 3837 8345 3840 8348 3843 8359
      3848 8359 3850 8363 3861 8354 3853 8312
      3849 8318 3847 8318 3843 8323 3833 8323
      3832 8328 3833 8332 3832 8335

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CHILLICOTHE             39.34N 82.99W
05/10/2011  E0.75 INCH       ROSS               OH   PUBLIC

&&

MPADGETT