River Flood Advisory 27, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...LEAVING CLOUDY SKIES
AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CONTINUES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TENNESSEE RIDES
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND OHIO. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW HAS A
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTAINING OVER 200 PERCENT NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. PREVIOUS RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ON
THE WAY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING. SYSTEM IS SLOWER THAN
SUGGESTED ON EARLIER MODEL RUNS SO KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
TONIGHT. A TRAILING EDGE TO THE STEADY RAIN IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
AND OBS AND THIS BACK EDGE WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS
EVENING BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO END BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THOUGH SEVERAL RIVER POINTS WILL BE IN FLOOD
DUE TO THE RAIN EVENT. WITH MODELS SHOWING A LINGERING LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NORTHERLY FLOW...LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

FURTHER DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW TO THE SOUTH AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON TUESDAY COOLING
TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION WITH NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMING DOMINATE AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIALLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
WESTERLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP SE
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
SHARPER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF AND OFFERS A COLDER SOLN. WL
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF SOLN. ILNS FA
LOOKS TO GET MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR WITH WAA BEGINNING
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OFFERING A MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE REGION...AND
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES...IT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL MEAN THAT IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.

STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIFTING
OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO MVFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>072-077-078.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>096.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>072-077-078-062100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
352 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...SEVERAL POINTS ON AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ097>100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-062100-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
352 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL OCCURRING TODAY WILL RESULT IN RISES ON AREA
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...SEVERAL POINTS ON AREA RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
453 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     FLOOD            SPARTA                  38.68N 84.91W
12/05/2011                   GALLATIN           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EABLE CREEK FLOODING. ESTIMATED TO BE 4 FEET OUT OF ITS
            BANKS.

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
525 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE OXFORD             39.44N 84.67W
12/05/2011  M2.50 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            INDIAN CREEK OUT OF BANKS IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
528 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     FLOOD            SPARTA                  38.68N 84.91W
12/05/2011                   GALLATIN           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STEPHENS CREEK FLOODING. ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 7 FEET
            ABOVE BANKFULL. GOLD VALLEY ROAD COVERED BY WATER.

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
546 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHARONVILLE             39.28N 84.41W
12/05/2011  M3.01 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EST MON DEC 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE FAIRFIELD          39.39N 84.48W
12/05/2011  M2.85 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALANR