River Flood Advisory 14, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH OHIO TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE POPS TO LOWER THEM S OF WRM FRONT WHICH RUNS ACROSS
SRN OH. KEPT 100 POPS ACROSS THE N WITH THE AREA CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE AREA TO PUSH NE OF THE FA BY 00Z.

LOWERED TEMPS IN THE N DUE TO THE RAIN AND COLD NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SWATH
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WENT WITH
100 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ENERGIZED BY A 60 KNOT 850 MB JET.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE...WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG BROKEN SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE NIGHT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES TO
EASTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200% OF NORMAL WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED QUICKLY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO KEPT THURSDAY DRY SINCE IT APPEARS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRMFNT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FA...RUNNING FROM NR CVG-UNI.
AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA IS WORKING E ACROSS THE NRN TAFS...N OF THE
FNT...WILL PUSH THRU CMH/LCK BY 22Z.

WRMFNT SHOULD WORK N THIS AFTN AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW OUT OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO GO VFR ACROSS THE SRN TAFS THIS AFTN.
CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE N AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

AS LOW EJECTS FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A
CDFNT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
LINE OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FNT. SOME TSTMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS FCST OF WINDS GUSTS TO
28KTS. THEY COULD BE HIGHER BUT DIDNT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY WITH
WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
LINE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 28KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORMS ARE TRAINING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL
LINE. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSONVILLE          39.65N 83.56W
04/19/2011  E0.75 INCH       FAYETTE            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

ASL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
214 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

OHZ055-064-065-191845-
FAIRFIELD OH-FRANKLIN OH-PICKAWAY OH-
214 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKAWAY...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SLATE RUN
METRO PARK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...PICKERINGTON...
BALTIMORE...LANCASTER...MILLERSPORT...PLEASANTVILLE...FAIRFIELD BEACH
AND BREMEN.

ALSO...CARROLL...FAIRFIELD COUNTY AIRPORT...THURSTON...NORTH BERNE...
WEST RUSHVILLE AND RUSHVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3967 8237 3965 8294 3988 8293 3993 8246
      3984 8247 3984 8240 3983 8239 3975 8240
      3975 8237 3974 8236

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
236 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLOOD            BALTIMORE               39.85N 82.61W
04/19/2011                   FAIRFIELD          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN 2.0 INCHES. LEITNAKER AND
            HOLDER ROADS ARE BOTH CLOSED IN SPOTS DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KURZ