Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH OHIO TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. SINCE MOST OF THE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE STAYING
ALOFT...LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT. HAVE ISSUED A
FEW WARNINGS FOR A PERSISTENT CELL EAST OF CINCINNATI THAT HAS
PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY RESULT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
BRIEFLY RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTH TO THE
MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SWATH
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WENT WITH
100 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ENERGIZED BY A 60 KNOT 850 MB JET.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE...WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG BROKEN SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE NIGHT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES TO
EASTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200% OF NORMAL WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED QUICKLY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO KEPT THURSDAY DRY SINCE IT APPEARS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY EARLY TODAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF MOIST ASCENT DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. PCPN MAY BECOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY.

AFTER THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST DURG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. MVFR/IFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. AT THIS TIME HAVE RE-INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 28KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORMS ARE TRAINING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL
LINE. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1131 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     FLOOD            1 SSE CHEVIOT           39.14N 84.61W
04/19/2011                   HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2.48
            INCHES WITH 1 INCH OBSERVED IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES. URBAN
            FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1142 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     FLOOD            MORROW                  39.35N 84.13W
04/19/2011                   WARREN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOOODING ON ROADWAYS WITH SOME ROAD CLOSURES

1139 AM     FLOOD            MORROW                  39.35N 84.13W
04/19/2011                   WARREN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON ROADWAYS WITH ROAD CLOSURES

&&

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1147 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

OHZ042-051-053-060>062-191645-
CLARK OH-DARKE OH-GREENE OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
1147 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PREBLE...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN MIAMI...NORTHERN GREENE...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
DARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1142 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OKLAHOMA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ENGLEWOOD...TROTWOOD...
MORAINE...DAYTON...NORTHRIDGE...VANDALIA...OAKWOOD...KETTERING...
HUBER HEIGHTS...WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB...BEAVERCREEK AND FAIRBORN.

ALSO...GORDON...VERONA...BROOKVILLE...NEW LEBANON...PHILLIPSBURG...
GARLAND...UNION AND DREXEL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3995 8382 3967 8378 3968 8466 3993 8463