Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

661 
WWUS52 KILM 050824
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
424 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCC155-SCC031-033-041-067-069-050900-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110405T0900Z/
ROBESON NC-MARLBORO SC-DILLON SC-DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-
424 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...MARLBORO
AND ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 419 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST 
NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH TO NEAR RAEMON IN 
ROBESON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE 
EAST...NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DUNBAR...
ZION...CLIO...SMITHBORO...FLOYDALE...TATUM...MINTURN...FORK...LITTLE
ROCK...MCCOLL...HAMER...KEMPER...SOUTH OF THE BORDER...LAKE VIEW...
ROWLAND...RAEMON...MARIETTA...PURVIS...SEVEN BRIDGES...MAXTON...
ELROD...ALMA...MCDONALD...RAYNHAM...FAIRMONT...BARNESVILLE...
PROCTORVILLE...PEMBROKE...ORRUM...WAKULLA...BUIE...RED SPRINGS...
HESTERTOWN...LUMBERTON...EMERSON...HOWELLSVILLE...REX...SHANNON...
TOLARSVILLE...SMITHS...ST. PAULS...RENNERT...PARKTON...LUMBER BRIDGE
AND BARKER TEN MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3475 7885 3450 7885 3388 7984 3394 7996
      3399 7991 3408 8006 3435 8018 3432 8023
      3437 8027 3449 7990 3454 7983 3462 7979
      3477 7993 3481 7989 3481 7967 3464 7945
      3477 7934 3484 7934 3484 7918 3495 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0823Z 237DEG 47KT 3443 7951

$$

15

886 
WWUS52 KILM 050858
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
458 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCC155-SCC031-033-041-067-069-050908-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110405T0900Z/
ROBESON NC-MARLBORO SC-DILLON SC-DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-
458 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...
FLORENCE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...MARLBORO AND ROBESON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 AM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3475 7885 3450 7885 3388 7984 3394 7996
      3399 7991 3408 8006 3435 8018 3432 8023
      3437 8027 3449 7990 3454 7983 3462 7979
      3477 7993 3481 7989 3481 7967 3464 7945
      3477 7934 3484 7934 3484 7918 3495 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 237DEG 47KT 3468 7904

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TUESDAY AND PREVAIL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...MUCH ANTICIPATED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALREADY HAVE A TORNADO WATCH UP FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND NUMEROUS WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND VERIFIED BY CWAS TO OUR NW. FRONT IS MOVING FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND EXPECT WE WILL BE ISSUING OUR FIRST WARNINGS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LARGELY LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION. EXPECT LAST OF THE
PRECIP WILL EXIT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BY AROUND NOON OR SO.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT DUE TO TIGHT ADVANCE
GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WE WILL SEE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND A STEADY DROP THEREAFTER.
ACTUAL HOUR BY HOUR TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...A SUBTLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
BRIEFLY TURN WESTERLY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM RIGHT
OVER THE AREA TO WELL OFF THE COAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL BELOW AN INCH...POPS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. SKIES SHOULD BE
SUNNY WEDNESDAY AND FOR PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY STREAM ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...COMPONENTS OF THE EXTENDED REMAIN INTACT WITH RIDGING
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BREAKING DOWN LATE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE WEST GETS KICKED OUT. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING SOME DISORGANIZED
DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST  BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOWING UP LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH MORNING DUE TO STRATUS
POTENTIAL AND STRONG FROPA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES TUESDAY AFTN AS VFR DEVELOPS.

STRONG S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS TN APPROACHES. TWO DIFFICULTIES TO THIS FORECAST. ONE BEING
THE STRATUS THREAT TONIGHT...AND THE SECOND BEING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH THE FROPA TOWARDS MORNING.

WINDS BACKED JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...ONLY 20 DEGREES...BUT THAT WAS
ENOUGH TO INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVEN CREATED SOME SEA
FOG/STRATUS AT CRE. HAVE NOTICED WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER MORE TO THE
SW AGAIN SO LESS CHANCE OF THIS CONTINUING BUT HAVE KEPT SCT AT IFR
LEVEL AT ALL OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR POTENTIAL...AND WILL AMD
AS NECESSARY. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT THE
COAST THOUGH. INLAND...AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL
CONVECTION MOVES IN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS BASED MORE OFF UPSTREAM
OBS THAN GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CIGS TONIGHT. AT
LEAST TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTION...BUT RAPID
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND FROPA AND VFR WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
BY THE AFTN.

OTHER THAN CIGS...BIG CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL NOT EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A
VERY STRONG LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD. EXPECT 30 KT GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL FROPA. IT APPEARS A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BEST ESTIMATE WOULD BE FROM ABOUT 09Z-10Z IN THE WESTERN
CWA AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY 15Z-16Z. HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS
ARE LIKELY...WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION MIXING DOWN AT LEAST 35 KT
WINDS...POTENTIALLY MUCH HIGHER. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE STRONG NW WINDS...AGAIN
GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS...DRY THE COLUMN AND VFR DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY
EVE. WINDS WILL FINALLY EASE AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
NOON TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER EXPIRATION OF
THE GALE WARNING AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS
UP IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ESSENTIALLY OVER
THE WATERS TO WELL OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATE WEDNESDAY
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DEVELOPING
THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE LATEST
SWAN RUN YIELDS SEAS OF TWO FEET WEDNESDAY INCREASING DUE PRIMARILY
BASED ON THE LONGEVITY OF THE FETCH TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET BY FRIDAY
AM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS...PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ097-
     100-101.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

AMZ250-252-254-256-060730-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ034-046-060730-
HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ099-SCZ033-039-060730-
COLUMBUS-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ097-101-060730-
PENDER-NEW HANOVER-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ100-060730-
BRUNSWICK-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-023-024-032-060730-
ROBESON-BLADEN-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-
324 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 100 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.