Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wichita, KS

401 
WWUS53 KICT 192140
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSC167-192150-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-110519T2200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
440 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST 
CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3905 9904 3913 9904 3914 9903 3914 9880
      3914 9879 3885 9882 3885 9904 3905 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 184DEG 26KT 3928 9891

$$

BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN H3 JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL HELP TO SHARPEN A DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD GIVEN WEAK CINH LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN MID POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
SATURDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF KANSAS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEIGHTED IN THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRIER/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO THE REGION AND DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE RETURNS
TO THE ROCKIES.

MWM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAVE A CLASSIC UPSLOPE
SITUATION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
ELSWEHERE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST A SURFACE DRYLINE IS SETTING UP BETWEEN GREAT BEND AND
DODGE CITY THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KRSL AND KHUT AREAS BY
2200Z THEN INTO KICT AND KSLN BY 0000Z. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE UNTIL ABOUT 0300Z. THE AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE KCNU BY 0400Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS REFORMING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 0900Z.
/ELDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  79  62  83 /  60  60  50  20
HUTCHINSON      66  79  60  83 /  70  60  50  20
NEWTON          66  79  62  83 /  60  60  50  20
ELDORADO        67  78  63  82 /  60  60  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  79  63  83 /  50  60  50  20
RUSSELL         62  79  56  82 /  70  60  50  10
GREAT BEND      63  80  56  83 /  70  60  50  10
SALINA          66  79  61  83 /  70  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       66  79  60  83 /  70  60  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  79  66  82 /  50  60  60  30
CHANUTE         68  78  65  81 /  60  60  60  30
IOLA            67  78  64  81 /  60  60  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    68  78  65  81 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
356 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 WHERE HAIL UP TO
3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 9 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT MOVING
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND HAIL AS
LARGE AS GOLFBALLS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. LISTEN FOR THOSE FORECASTS ISSUED THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...BUT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO HUTCHINSON
TO ELLSWORTH.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

MWM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ091-192115-
HARPER-
348 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARPER COUNTY...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DUNTEN