Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Wichita, KS

357 
WWUS53 KICT 190423
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1123 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSC015-190433-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-110619T0515Z/
BUTLER KS-
1123 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3794 9652 3764 9653 3773 9707 3798 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 263DEG 33KT 3786 9685

$$

PEARCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.UPDATE...

ON GOING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS TWO DISTINCT AREAS AT THIS
TIME.  FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER SOUTHERN KS...WHERE BULK SHEAR
AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS IN WW506.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FEED LOTS OF RICH MOISTURE
INTO THIS CONVECTION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
BACKBUILDING NATURE TO THIS CONVECTION...WITH AN INCREASED FLOODING
THREAT AS STORMS MOVER OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT GOT HIT EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND BOWING
STORMS CURRENTLY NORTH OF KDDC.  THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE
RIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH OF KDDC TO NEAR
WELLINGTON. EXPECT THIS STRONG TO SEVERE COMPLEX TO RIDE RIGHT ALONG
THIS ELEVATED LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. THIS SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AREAS
THAT DIDNT SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION INCLUDING KHUT AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF WICHITA.

CURRENT TRENDS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

TWO CONCERN TNGT...ONE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN SERN KS AND
ANOTHER CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA OUT IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TSRA CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL AROUND 07Z.  THIS WILL AFFECT THE
KCNU TAF SITE BUT PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF KICT.  SO WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS CHANCE.  WILL NOT PUT ANY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
TEMPO GROUP JUST YET...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS IN AND CLOSE TO
ANY STRONG/SVR STORM.

THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CONVECTION POSSIBLY COMING OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT LATE TNGT OR EARLY SUN
MORNING.  STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT
IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER UNTIL IT GETS TO KRSL. SO WILL KEEP VCTS OUT
OF THIS TAF FOR NOW...AND WATCH CURRENT TRENDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
CONVECTION IN KRSL...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...WOULD BE AFTER 05Z/SUN.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE REPEAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SLIDING
EAST...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED INTO MISSOURI...BUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH A BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  THERE ARE ALSO
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
OVER THIS AREA...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS.  LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL AND THE CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING WITH A CU FIELD VISIBLE
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT:
CONVECTIVE INITIATION PLACEMENT WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY TODAY...LIKE
YESTERDAY.  THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...HRRR/RUC SHOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z IN NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  THIS AREA HAS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
PROFILE AND THE CAP IS ALREADY WEAKENING AS VISIBLE FROM CU
DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE.  WITH THIS ANALYSIS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUTLER COUNTY AND WEST.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH 3000-4000 J/KG CAPE AND 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR.
THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS DEVELOP AS THE EVENT MATURES.

GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD 00-06Z.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD.  THIS
HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND FEEL THAT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY:
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THIS AREA SITS ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MARGINAL
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR...BUT FEEL
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
DEEPENS...AND THE WARM FRONT STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND THE DRY
LINE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THE DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND BY
00Z/MON 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR WILL BE SET UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR.  FEEL THAT WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR VECTORS AND
THE PLENTIFUL CAPE AND SHEAR AND SOME CONVERGENCE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS -SUPERCELLS- COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL VERY HOT WEST OF THE DRY LINE WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING OUT.  THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA (PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE WEST) AND WINDS LOOK
TO STAY MORE SOUTHERLY IN A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE
DRYLINE.  THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS...IF THE
DRYLINE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO THE LOW
TO MID 100S.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY
AND WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHILE THE WARM
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY.  WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A BIG BREAK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COOLER...MORE NORMAL 80S WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG
THEMSELVES.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.  HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND BACKED OFF ON POPS SOME...TO SLIGHTS.  SPECIFIC
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WHILE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR POPS...FEEL THAT POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT WARRANTED
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS.

BILLINGS

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARDS: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A LIGHT WIND/VFR
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS PM INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SEPARATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS PM WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND A FEW
REMNANT BOUNDARIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS STRATEGY
IN TAF SITES AFTER 22Z THROUGH ABOUT 07Z-08Z TONIGHT. CAN UPDATE
TO TEMPO TSRA WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON STORM
LOCATION/COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  97  75  99 /  60  30  30  30
HUTCHINSON      68  96  74  96 /  60  30  10  30
NEWTON          68  96  74  96 /  60  30  30  30
ELDORADO        68  95  75  96 /  60  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  97  77  98 /  60  20  40  20
RUSSELL         65  93  70  90 /  60  30  10  30
GREAT BEND      66  96  70  92 /  60  30  10  30
SALINA          68  95  76  94 /  60  30  20  20
MCPHERSON       67  96  74  95 /  60  30  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  94  76  94 /  60  20  30  10
CHANUTE         69  93  76  93 /  60  20  30  20
IOLA            69  93  75  92 /  60  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  94  76  94 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1016 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-200330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1016 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE NEXT
STORMS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMB/KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             5 N HOWARD              37.54N 96.26W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       ELK                KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE BURNS             38.07N 96.87W
06/18/2011  E70 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             5 W HOWARD              37.46N 96.35W
06/18/2011  E0.88 INCH       ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     HAIL             3 N BENTON              37.83N 97.11W
06/18/2011  E1.75 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON BUTLER ROAD NORTH OF BENTON.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
06/18/2011  E1.75 INCH       ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 70 MPH WINDS GUSTS.

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1107 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
06/18/2011  E70 MPH          ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SGS