Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Wichita, KS

124 
WWUS53 KICT 190101
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
801 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSC133-205-190145-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-110619T0145Z/
NEOSHO KS-WILSON KS-
801 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WILSON AND
WESTERN NEOSHO COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ALTOONA...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...BUFFALO...NEODESHA...ALTOONA...THAYER...GALESBURG...
  CHANUTE AIRPORT AND EARLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9534 3738 9567 3739 9590 3773 9580
      3773 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 268DEG 18KT 3751 9573
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

JAKUB

621 
WWUS53 KICT 190117
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSC133-205-190145-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-110619T0145Z/
NEOSHO KS-WILSON KS-
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WILSON AND
WESTERN NEOSHO COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ALTOONA...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...THAYER...GALESBURG...CHANUTE AIRPORT AND EARLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9534 3738 9567 3739 9590 3773 9580
      3773 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 268DEG 18KT 3751 9563
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

JAKUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

TWO CONCERN TNGT...ONE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN SERN KS AND
ANOTHER CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA OUT IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TSRA CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL AROUND 07Z.  THIS WILL AFFECT THE
KCNU TAF SITE BUT PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF KICT.  SO WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS CHANCE.  WILL NOT PUT ANY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
TEMPO GROUP JUST YET...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS IN AND CLOSE TO
ANY STRONG/SVR STORM.

THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CONVECTION POSSIBLY COMING OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT LATE TNGT OR EARLY SUN
MORNING.  STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT
IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER UNTIL IT GETS TO KRSL. SO WILL KEEP VCTS OUT
OF THIS TAF FOR NOW...AND WATCH CURRENT TRENDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
CONVECTION IN KRSL...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...WOULD BE AFTER 05Z/SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE REPEAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SLIDING
EAST...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED INTO MISSOURI...BUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH A BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  THERE ARE ALSO
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
OVER THIS AREA...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS.  LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL AND THE CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING WITH A CU FIELD VISIBLE
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT:
CONVECTIVE INITIATION PLACEMENT WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY TODAY...LIKE
YESTERDAY.  THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...HRRR/RUC SHOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z IN NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  THIS AREA HAS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
PROFILE AND THE CAP IS ALREADY WEAKENING AS VISIBLE FROM CU
DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE.  WITH THIS ANALYSIS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUTLER COUNTY AND WEST.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH 3000-4000 J/KG CAPE AND 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR.
THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS DEVELOP AS THE EVENT MATURES.

GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD 00-06Z.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD.  THIS
HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND FEEL THAT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY:
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THIS AREA SITS ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MARGINAL
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR...BUT FEEL
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
DEEPENS...AND THE WARM FRONT STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND THE DRY
LINE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THE DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND BY
00Z/MON 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR WILL BE SET UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR.  FEEL THAT WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR VECTORS AND
THE PLENTIFUL CAPE AND SHEAR AND SOME CONVERGENCE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS -SUPERCELLS- COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL VERY HOT WEST OF THE DRY LINE WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING OUT.  THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA (PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE WEST) AND WINDS LOOK
TO STAY MORE SOUTHERLY IN A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE
DRYLINE.  THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS...IF THE
DRYLINE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO THE LOW
TO MID 100S.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY
AND WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHILE THE WARM
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY.  WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A BIG BREAK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COOLER...MORE NORMAL 80S WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG
THEMSELVES.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.  HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND BACKED OFF ON POPS SOME...TO SLIGHTS.  SPECIFIC
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WHILE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR POPS...FEEL THAT POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT WARRANTED
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS.

BILLINGS

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARDS: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A LIGHT WIND/VFR
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS PM INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SEPARATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS PM WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND A FEW
REMNANT BOUNDARIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS STRATEGY
IN TAF SITES AFTER 22Z THROUGH ABOUT 07Z-08Z TONIGHT. CAN UPDATE
TO TEMPO TSRA WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON STORM
LOCATION/COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  97  75  99 /  40  30  30  30
HUTCHINSON      68  96  74  96 /  50  30  10  30
NEWTON          68  96  74  96 /  50  30  30  30
ELDORADO        68  95  75  96 /  60  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  97  77  98 /  50  20  40  20
RUSSELL         65  93  70  90 /  50  30  10  30
GREAT BEND      66  96  70  92 /  60  30  10  30
SALINA          68  95  76  94 /  60  30  20  20
MCPHERSON       67  96  74  95 /  60  30  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  94  76  94 /  50  20  30  10
CHANUTE         69  93  76  93 /  60  20  30  20
IOLA            69  93  75  92 /  60  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  94  76  94 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-192045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIAL INITIATION WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER THE SUN SETS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14. ONCE AGAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE NEXT
STORMS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/ADK/RHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
723 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             1 W NEW ALBANY          37.57N 95.95W
06/18/2011  E1.25 INCH       WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
731 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ069-070-190100-
BUTLER-GREENWOOD-
731 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF LEON...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
EL DORADO...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BILLINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
732 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             1 SE FREDONIA           37.53N 95.82W
06/18/2011  E0.88 INCH       WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A POSSIBLE WALL CLOUD TRYING TO
            FORM BUT NOW VERY PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME.

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
734 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             4 S CEDAR VALE          37.04N 96.50W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 SE FREDONIA           37.53N 95.82W
06/18/2011                   WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER IS LOOKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND SEES
            A FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/18/2011  E1.25 INCH       COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

SGS