Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT. UNCLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WHEN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS DEEPER OUTFLOW FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. SO FAR IT APPEARS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
CONCERN IS THAT 1800 UTC NAM MAY BE CORRECT BRINGING THE STORMS
INTO CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE VCTS GOING AT
KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND CB AT KICT. CLEARLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IF STORMS GO DIRECTLY OVER A
SITE...BUT ODDS/ABILITY TO ACCURATELY TIME THIS PRECLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME.  ALSO APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL WORK ABOUT HALF
WAY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE EXITING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KS...THEN RENEWED STORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WRN KS AND AGAIN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL KEEP MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF ERN SECTIONS REMAINING
UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY THE MORNING COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS BACK TO
THE WEST INTO SW KS. INTERSECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THE DRY
LINE IN WRN KS NEAR DDC...WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THIS AREA REACHES ITS CONVECTIVE
TEMP...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING.  SW KS WILL BE UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP....SO THINK THE STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE UNTIL A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SERN CO MOVES INTO THE WRN KS. BUT AS THIS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL
KS LATER THIS EVENING. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS FOR THE STORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT APPROACHES.

FRI:
PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ON FRI...
AS BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA....FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY ALONG THE KS
TURNPIKE. THE QUESTION WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO KEEPING MOST AREAS CAPPED UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EVEN WITH THE STRONG CAP...THINK
SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING MAX HEATING SO THINK A LOW
POP IS AGAIN WARRANTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  DO
NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN GET GOING TO LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT. BUT GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THINK
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

SAT-SUN:
LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY ON HOW THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SRN KS FOR SAT...BEFORE
TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUN.  INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS SRN KS....WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCE. SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  POPS FOR LATE SAT INTO SUN WILL BE DIFFICULT AS
WELL...AS UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WRN KS COULD LEAD TO A COMPLEX OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS LATE SAT NIGHT.  THIS COMPLEX COULD DRIFT
INTO CEN KS EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON
SUN. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THE DAYTIME ON
SUN INTO NRN KS...WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY SUN AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...THINK CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP SOUTHERN KS DRY
FOR SUN AFTN.

MON-WED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
PLAY OUT...BUT THE GENERAL TREND LOOKS TO BE THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE NW ON WED...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION AS THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST CAME UNFOLDED TODAY AS AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
MOVE ESE INTO OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...CLOUDS DECREASE
RAPIDLY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLE THIS
CONVECTION WELL THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SATELLITE AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. LATER TODAY EXPECT CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. THIS WILL
HAVE A MAIN IMPACT ON KRSL/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY KSLN/KICT. BECAUSE
OF UNCERTAINTY...MENTIONED VCTS FOR THOSE AREAS. VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS CONVECTION WANES
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

DUNTEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  98  72  95 /  20  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      73  97  70  92 /  20  20  20  20
NEWTON          74  96  71  92 /  20  30  20  20
ELDORADO        73  96  71  94 /  20  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  98  74  98 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         70  91  64  87 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      72  93  66  88 /  20  10  10  20
SALINA          73  95  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       73  95  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  75  97 /  20  10  20  10
CHANUTE         72  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  10
IOLA            71  92  73  92 /  10  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  75  96 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
412 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 FROM SALINA TO WICHITA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 100 ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

DUNTEN/KETCHAM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>