Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

COULD STILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SOME HIT OR MISS CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL 02-03Z...AS AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THIS AREA.  GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
NORTH OF KRSL AND KSLN...BUT WILL KEEP A VCTS NEAR KRSL WITH CB
CLOUD DESCRIPTOR NEAR KSLN AND KHUT.  THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
IN THE MID LAYERS.

AFTER TSRA CHANCE ENDS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THU.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
RATHER TOUGH CONVECTIVE FORECAST OUT OF THE BOX...WITH CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT A LOT OF CAPPING. HOWEVER CONVERGENCE/TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED RESIDUAL LIFT FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION IN OK...WHICH WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT AREA EAST
OF I-35 AFTER 0000 UTC. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL BASED ON CORFIDI
VECTORS FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THU:
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER RUSSELL/BARTON COUNTIES...IF NOT MOST OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. WHILE MODELS SEEM TO BE LAGGING A BIT ON
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME DRYING LIKELY IN THE
WEST WITH MINIMAL REDUCTION IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT
MORE CUMULUS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST KS VS
REST OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...COMBO OF CAPPING AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE PRECLUDES
MENTIONING ANYTHING IN GRIDS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

FRI:
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL KS FRI NIGHT AS
SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGES VERY CLOSE TO NORTHWEST EDGE OF FORECAST
AREA. WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PERSISTENCE FOR
MAXES.

SAT-TUE:
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW GFS AND
ECMWF HEADING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS WITH SPEED OF WEST COAST LOW.
WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER...THE AVERAGING
IN THE TESTBED GRIDS SHOULD BE QUITE GOOD. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT TRICKY WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS...BUT AREA/TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC...AND WANT
TO AVOID MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCES EVERY DAY. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED...HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES...DUE TO A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS...IN CONCERT WITH SUBTLE
MID/UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCLUDED "CB"
WORDING FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT. ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING AT KRSL AND COULD BE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED...AS AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST THIS
EVENING. CIGS LOOK TO BE SCT-BKN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY THURSDAY MORNING...DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      66  96  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        68  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  94  69  93 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         67  96  67  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      66  96  66  98 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          69  96  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  95  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  93  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         68  91  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            68  91  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  92  70  91 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
506 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
506 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. ALL OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SUSTAINED WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 30 MPH OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY OVER RUSSELL AND
BARTON COUNTIES.  A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1009 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     FLOOD            1 W LUCAS               39.06N 98.56W
06/01/2011                   RUSSELL            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROADS. PERSON TRAPPED IN A CAR.

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N BARNARD             39.20N 98.04W
06/01/2011  E5.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1003 PM     FLOOD            LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
06/01/2011                   LINCOLN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 INCHES OF WATER OVER MOST ROADS IN TOWN.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1021 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     HAIL             2 N WILSON              38.85N 98.47W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DUNTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HAIL             1 NE WILSON             38.84N 98.46W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DUNTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1034 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             6 SW SYLVAN GROVE       38.95N 98.47W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1043 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N ELLSWORTH           38.85N 98.23W
06/01/2011  E50.00 MPH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OCCURRED AT THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 14 INTERSECTION.

1039 PM     HAIL             8 N ELLSWORTH           38.85N 98.23W
06/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OCCURRED AT THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 14 INTERSECTION.

&&

DUNTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1047 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             6 N WILSON              38.91N 98.47W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDK