Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Wichita, KS

761 
WWUS53 KICT 300054
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
754 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSC167-300130-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-110530T0130Z/
RUSSELL KS-
754 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 752 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARADISE...LURAY AND WALDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3903 9905 3913 9897 3913 9863
      3891 9862 3872 9903 3873 9905 3884 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 226DEG 31KT 3894 9890
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

ES

409 
WWUS53 KICT 300104
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
804 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSC167-300113-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-110530T0130Z/
RUSSELL KS-
804 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RUSSELL COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY 40 MPH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...SO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 396 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3903 9905 3913 9897 3913 9863
      3891 9862 3872 9903 3873 9905 3884 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 226DEG 31KT 3899 9883

$$

ES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.UPDATE...
WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL DARK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...IT APPEARS THE GREATER
COVERAGE AND RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY STAY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHWARD MIGRATING WARM FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE RUC SHOWED THE BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES FOR ROTATING/SEVERE
STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH THE CIRROFORM CANOPY FROM THE PANHANDLE
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE INSTABILITY TOWARD SUNSET AND LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD IMPACT MOST
OF THE COUNTIES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SEVERE WATCH FOR THE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE DRY-LINE AND
WARM FRONT MAY AFFECT A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS...IN VICINITY
OF KRSL UNTIL DARK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HEADLINES FOR STRONG WINDS ON MON
ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO. MEANWHILE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTH OF KDDC TO NEAR KGBD TO NEAR KSLN.

TONIGHT-MON:
THERE LOOKS TO STILL BE A REMOTE CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONFIDENCE EXTREMELY LOW IN
THIS OCCURRING. THE LAST TWO DAYS THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN OK BUT THE CAP
ENDED UP WINNING OUT AND FEEL IT SHOULD AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR EARLY EVENING CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES WHERE THE DRYLINE IS MORE DEFINED WITH TEMPS SPIKING TO
AROUND 100.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ON MON. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR MON. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES WHERE IT STILL APPEARS
WIND WARNING CRITERIA MAYBE POSSIBLE AS THEY MIX TO AROUND
750-700MB. THEREFORE LEFT THOSE FOUR COUNTIES IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH
AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER GANDER AT IT.

A FEW STORMS STILL LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER MON
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
START TO ADVECT IN. BEFORE 00Z RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AROUND 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN ADDITION THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS EAST OF THE BETTER
FORCING AFTER 06Z TUE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT:
A FEW STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS ON TUE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS CAPPING WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEING LACK OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISO-SCT CONVECTION
AFTER DARK. HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME CAPPING WILL BE IN
PLACE ABOVE 850MB. THEREFORE WILL NOT INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS AND
JUST LEAVE SLIGHTS IN.

WED-SUN:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TRYING TO SNEAK
AN UPPER IMPULSE UNDER THE DEVELOPING RIDGE ON WED...NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH AT ALL
FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WITH MID AND UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
BY THU AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY
MARK THROUGH MANY OF THESE DAYS.

LAWSON

AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. VERY
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY LINGER DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR KRSL-KSLN
WITH VFR ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 22-30 KNOT
RANGE TODAY POSSIBLY INCREASING INTO THE 30-36 KNOT RANGE ON
MONDAY.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  90  69  87 /  10  10  30  20
HUTCHINSON      73  90  67  86 /  10  10  30  10
NEWTON          73  89  69  85 /  10  10  30  10
ELDORADO        72  88  70  86 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  20
RUSSELL         72  91  58  84 /  10  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      73  92  61  85 /  10  20  60  10
SALINA          73  90  64  85 /  10  10  40  10
MCPHERSON       73  90  66  86 /  10  10  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  72  85 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         70  87  71  85 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            70  87  71  85 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    70  87  72  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301915-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
408 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A SALINA TO LYONS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CAMPERS AND ESPECIALLY BOATERS
NEED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON AREA LAKES MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/MWM/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSZ032-300100-
RUSSELL-
725 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GORHAM...OR 9 MILES WEST OF RUSSELL...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN RUSSELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND
MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATENS.

ES