Areal Flood Warning 36, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS HELPED
BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS BROUGHT
SOME SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE DATA
WHILE MAINTAINING LOW POPS AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA.

INDEPENDENCE DAY-TUESDAY:
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHILE THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPRING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH TO NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 100 DEGREES WHILE CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS APPEAR LOW. ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MAY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE FRONT
MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES.

MWM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN ISSUE WILL STILL BE LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR AXIS/SHORTWAVE HAS KEPT STORMS GOING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND SUSPECT WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES/
INSTABILITY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS NEAR HIGHWAY 400. THIS BOUNDARY HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH DURING THE PAST HOUR. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT WHERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT AT KCNU...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OR WAVE/BOUNDARY THAT INITIATES THE
STORMS. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY...WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE VERY DIFFICULT...BUT SHOULD HAVE SOME SORT OF SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT BY MON MORNING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72 101  76 102 /  30  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      72 101  76 102 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          72 100  75 100 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        72  99  74  99 /  30  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72 101  75 101 /  40  20  10  10
RUSSELL         68 100  71 102 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      69 100  72 102 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          71 100  74 102 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       71 101  76 102 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  75  99 /  40  20  20  10
CHANUTE         72  96  74  98 /  40  20  20  10
IOLA            72  95  73  97 /  40  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  75  98 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

MWM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KSZ092-032215-
SUMNER-
408 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMNER COUNTY...

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CONWAY
SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

MCGUIRE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>