Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS/HIGH WIND WARNING
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSRA HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT
OF NE AL...WITH SOME LINGERING -SHRA/ELEVATED -TSRA IMPACTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE PREDOM RUNNING AOA MVFR RANGE
WITHIN THE PRECIP CORE...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ABOVE
VFR LEVELS FROM W TO E AFTER 15Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE TAFS
PRECIP FREE INTO THE EVENING HRS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...WAKE LOW IS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE
ACROSS NE AL...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH. A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE AL THROUGH 8 AM.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A LEWP CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS TN...RACING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH STILL
LIES JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THE BEST SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH THE INITIAL
LEWP HAS BEEN ACROSS THE N/S ORIENTED PORTION OF THE LINE WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF DMG OCCURRED OVER NW AND W CENTRAL TN. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS BEEN ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL TO THE BULK SHEAR
VECTORS AND HAS SEEN THE COLD POOL OUTRUN THE CONVECTION. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES...HAS THIS FIRST ROUND HELPED BREAK THE CAP
FURTHER SOUTH OR HAS IT USED UP THE ENV ENERGY.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE
NE/SW ORIENTED THROUGH THE DAY AND SAG SOUTH ACROSS N AL BEFORE
STALLING OUT TONIGHT OVER THE BMX CWA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...THE BEST INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE TOWARD
CENTRAL MS WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER FURTHER NE. THE MAIN SHORT
TERM MODELS /NAM...RUC..AND WRF/ ALL POINT AT REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL POINT
AT MAIN THREATS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HAIL. PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES LATER TODAY AND REMAIN AT LEAST
ABOVE 1.2 INCHES ACROSS N AL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VEC MAGNITUDE VALUES DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK ELEVATED FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL PROMOTE QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEYOND THURSDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. THE
OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO KEEP SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEREFORE A WARM AND MOIST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT...AT LEAST AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...HAS LOOKED QUITE GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
UNTIL DAY 7. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE LONGWAVE TROF RAPIDLY AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND QUICKLY PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE EURO DIGS THE MAIN TROF FURTHER SOUTH AND
IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE EURO SOLN BUT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER EURO...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CULLMAN...DEKALB...JACKSON...MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...09
PREV DISCUSSION...CCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
453 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-202000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
453 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...SPARKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY IN THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HAIL AS THE GREATEST THREATS. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH BACK
NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS REQUESTED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

CCC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ALZ009-010-TNZ097-201145-
DE KALB-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-
559 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...FRANKLIN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 559 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WINCHESTER TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCOTTSBORO TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RAINSVILLE TO 10 MILES EAST OF ONEONTA...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN DEKALB...JACKSON AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF POWELL...LAKEVIEW...MARTINTOWN...GERALDINE...CHIGGER
HILL...HOPEWELL...DUTTON...FRANCISCO...ESTILLFORK AND WHITON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8556 3438 8562 3424 8583 3420 8584
      3420 8603 3444 8611 3448 8607 3453 8609
      3453 8614 3461 8614 3461 8618 3494 8629
      3494 8624 3496 8630 3506 8631 3517 8587
      3500 8586 3499 8560 3452 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 253DEG 42KT 3499 8619 3477 8592
          3459 8586 3397 8625

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW ARAB              34.36N 86.51W
04/20/2011                   MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGE IN THE RUTH COMMUNITY. HWY
            231 NORTH OF ARAB.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ARAB               34.30N 86.47W
04/20/2011                   MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN SOUTHWEST OF ARAB.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW ALBERTVILLE        34.23N 86.26W
04/20/2011  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           AL   AWOS

            ALBERTVILLE AWOS

0604 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW ALBERTVILLE        34.23N 86.26W
04/20/2011  M60 MPH          MARSHALL           AL   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GERALDINE               34.35N 86.00W
04/20/2011                   DEKALB             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HWY 227 BETWEEN GERALDINE
            AND GROVE OAK.

&&