Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT
LOCAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS IS MAKING EWRD PROGRESS INTO NW ALABAMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONE OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE STORMS JUST FROM
A RADAR REFLECTIVITY STANDPOINT PRODUCED ARND 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AS IT
MOVED ACROSS TUPELO. JUST RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME MINOR DAMAGE JUST
EAST OF MUSCLE SHOALS. BROAD SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONG AND UPR JET
COUPLING MAY INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERHAPS THE MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING FROM THIS EVENT SO FAR IS
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE. SERLY FLOW EARLIER ADVECTED 50S DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND THIS HAS
REMAINED. ESSENTIALLY...THE AREA APPEARS TO BE SITUATED BETWEEN A
REGION OF BETTER SHEAR/DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...AND BETTER INSTABILITY
TO THE SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SVR STORMS BEFORE THE LINE FINISHES CROSSING THE AREA. BETTER THREATS
WILL PROBABLY BE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS BEFORE HEATING WANES TOO
MUCH AND HIGHER 60S DEWPOINTS CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION LEADING INTO THE CNTRL
TN VALLEY...THX IN PART TO A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. AFTERNOON
HEATING THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE CAP AS THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PROVIDED CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LINE PATTERN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HRS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO...PROVIDED EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINE PATTERN. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY/WINDY THEREBY MAINTAINING THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM. THE SVR WX THREAT WILL THEN COME TO AN
END FROM W TO E LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE SEASONAL WX CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUE AS A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS EWD INTO MUCH OF
THE ERN CONUS...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN TOW. FAIR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS THU...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO GIVE
WAY TO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH COLD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...A STRENGTHENING TROUGH PATTERN IS
XPCTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES...WITH AN
ELONGATED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS SWWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRI...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU MAY
ACTUALLY LEAD TO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THU...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING/LIFT WOULD SUGGEST THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HOLDING
OFF UNTIL EARLY FRI.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS NEXT FRONT PUSHING WELL E OF THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WX BY SUN. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE SE REGION HELPING TO USHER IN
MORE SEASONAL WX HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

DISCUSSION...KDW
PREV DISCUSSION...09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
553 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-120515-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
553 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE IS  BETWEEN 6 PM TO 8
PM IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND 8 PM
TO 10 PM OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WINDS OUTSIDE ANY STORMS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AS A RESULT...A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SS/KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALZ001-112300-
LAUDERDALE-
530 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREEN HILL...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8725 3500 8726 3482 8754 3482 8756
      3494 8769 3501 8761 3501 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 237DEG 50KT 3497 8751

CCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALZ001-004-005-007-112315-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MORGAN-
542 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE
AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RED BANK TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HALEYVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES
EAST OF MUSCLE SHOALS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8752 3465 8747 3466 8744 3470 8745
      3471 8743 3476 8742 3479 8742 3480 8744
      3486 8743 3488 8679 3482 8678 3431 8688
      3432 8711 3430 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 262DEG 51KT 3479 8733 3430 8748

CCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE MUSCLE SHOALS      34.69N 87.62W
04/11/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND A ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A SHED
            IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE MUSCLE SHOALS
            COMMUNITY. THIS OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
            20 AND GARGIS LANE.

&&

KWEBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

TNZ076-096-112330-
LINCOLN-MOORE-
600 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PULASKI...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DELLROSE.
  BOONSHILL...MCBURG.
  HARMS.
  HOWELL...PETERSBURG.
  BELLEVILLE...CHESTNUT RIDGE.
  BOONEVILLE...LYNCHBURG.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8648 3534 8644 3534 8642 3536 8640
      3537 8635 3520 8630 3505 8683 3527 8682
      3528 8679 3527 8674 3531 8671 3535 8660
      3538 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 248DEG 52KT 3516 8696

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW KILLEN            34.88N 87.54W
04/11/2011                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ACROSS CR 65.

&&

KWEBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALZ005>007-112345-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
608 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIMESTONE...MADISON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAIRO TO CADDO...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS TO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MOULTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8649 3455 8652 3457 8711 3469 8710
      3473 8715 3486 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 276DEG 24KT 3488 8711 3455 8712

CCC