Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
148 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW CENTERED OVER SW
ARKANSAS. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS MARCHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...AS WELL AS A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT TO HANDLE
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/.

OTHER THAN THE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA /POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND/...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE SQUALL LINE ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF WILL MAINLY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE LINE THAT
DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS
IT IMPACTS THE AREA.

ML CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT IN
DISCRETE CELLS...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...MODELS ARE TRENDING WITH A FASTER MOTION OF THE LINE
ITSELF AS MID-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATE TO THE SFC. THIS FASTER PACE
WOULD POSSIBLY OVERTAKE ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND TRY ISSUE MESOSCALE UPDATES AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST BETWEEN 7PM
TONIGHT AND MIDNIGHT...WITH LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS
THRU OVERNIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.
EVEN WITH WINDS ARND 5KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP...SO WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN/CAA IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15MPH...AFTERNOON HIGHS /DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE/ WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE SRN GOMEX WILL STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE AREA IN U/L NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A DISTURBANCE WILL GRAZE
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL POSSIBLY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. THAT BEING SAID...MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
IS POOR...SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS-IS.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING LATER THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS POOR...WITH THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS-IS PENDING FURTHER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    42  60  37  72  48 /  80   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        41  61  36  73  50 /  50   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  59  39  70  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  40  59  35  71  47 /  80   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  60  38  71  49 /  90   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  59  35  71  46 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
222 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-050200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
222 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THIS LINE WILL EXIST...CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL AFFECT THE I-65
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE HUNTSVILLE AND DECATUR AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND
4 PM. AREAS ALONG A LINE...FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE TO
SCOTTSBORO...WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 PM...AND FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN
5 AND 7 PM.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST 7 PM THIS
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SS/KDW/DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
257 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW HUNTSVILLE        34.70N 86.66W
04/04/2011                   MADISON            AL   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON GOSS ROAD NEAR THE
            OFFICERS CLUB AT THE REDSTONE ARSENAL.

0142 PM     HAIL             N RUSSELLVILLE          34.51N 87.73W
04/04/2011  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE RUSSEVILLE JAIL.

0145 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            34.51N 87.73W
04/04/2011  E0.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE RUSSELLVILLE POLIC
            DEPARTMENT.

0150 PM     HAIL             ATHENS                  34.80N 86.97W
04/04/2011  E0.50 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ATHENS.

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHEROKEE                34.76N 87.97W
04/04/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
            CHEROKEE AND THE MARGERUM AREAS.

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     MUSCLE SHOALS           34.74N 87.67W
04/04/2011  M60.00 MPH       COLBERT            AL   ASOS

            52 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT KMSL

0234 PM     HAIL             ATHENS                  34.80N 86.97W
04/04/2011  M0.50 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ATHENS STATE UNIVERSITY.

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITEHEAD               34.89N 87.33W
04/04/2011  E60.00 MPH       LAUDERDALE         AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST. REPORT
            RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LESTER                  34.99N 87.15W
04/04/2011                   LIMESTONE          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO TREES DOWN 5 MILES SOUTH OF THE LAUDERDALE COUNTY
            LINE AT THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE IN WESTERN LIMESTONE
            COUNTY BETWEEM SALEM AND LESTER.

&&

AMIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
309 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW LEGGTOWN          34.94N 87.07W
04/04/2011                   LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT EASTER FERRY AT CABBAGE RIDGE ROAD.

&&

AMIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWN CREEK              34.68N 87.41W
04/04/2011                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN CREEK OFF HWY 101
            SOUTH

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWN CREEK              34.68N 87.41W
04/04/2011                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON A TRACTOR TRAILER

&&

AMIN

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