Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
701 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IN THE AREA...AND ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENT. FOR A LARGE PART...STORMS
HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT ADDITIONAL TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF KMEM AND MAY TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THIS LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE KMSL TERMINAL
AROUND 130-200Z AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING IN THE
AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS LINE WILL MISS THE SITE BUT EXPECT AT
LEAST VCTS AT THE SITE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT THIS LINE WILL REACH
KHSV SO HAVE SIMPLY KEPT THE CB GROUP THROUGH 04Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE NORTHERLY WINDS AT
BOTH SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011/
MONITORING MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE EVENING FORECAST.
CURRENTLY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BCM NMRS IN VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTS EWD. MULTIPLE
BANDS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES
ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE ZONE
APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP SW OF NASHVILLE INTO NERN MS...WHILE ANOTHER
RUNS FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE TO JASPER IN AL. THE RUC ATTEMPTS TO
ORGANIZE A MORE LINEAR MCS BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS THAT PROPAGATES
SEWD TOWARD THE I-20/59 CORRIDORS. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N
OF MEMPHIS...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS SERN MO INTO NRN AR.
THIS FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME TNGT...SO NOT EXPECTING A "SWEEPING"
CLEAN OF THE AIRMASS TNGT. SO WILL CARRY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS
IN OUR SERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT. SOME
PATCHY FG IS PSBL...BUT I HESITATE TO PLACE IT INTO THE FCST UNTIL
RAIN AREAS ARE BETTER DEFINED.

BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY ARE OUR BEST CHANCES...PERHAPS ONLY CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SEWD
THRU THE NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST SHOT ON FRIDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...I
HAVE CONCERNS THAT A CAP WL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THAT WILL RELEGATE
TSRA TO THE NE OF OUR FCST AREA. WL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO WARM EACH DAY...AND WITH A BIT MORE MUGGINESS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A STRONG 5H RIDGE BUILDS NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT FCST TEMPS IN THE M-U90S IN WRN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND U80S-L90S FURTHER E. RAIN CHANCES
MAY AGAIN INCREASE DAYS 8-9 AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND BREAKS DOWN A
BIT. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A TROF SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAVE ON OUR
HANDS CURRENTLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THUR NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...CCC
DISCUSSION...AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZED...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
751 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FLORENCE            34.82N 87.67W
06/15/2011                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

KWEBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ALZ008>010-160145-
DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-
800 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN WOODVILLE AND HENEGAR...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LARKINSVILLE.
  SCOTTSBORO.
  SECTION...HOLLYWOOD.
  DUTTON...PISGAH.
  ROSALIE...SYLVANIA.
  HENAGAR.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME IF THE
STORMS INTENSIFY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8552 3456 8631 3457 8632 3459 8629
      3460 8632 3472 8632 3476 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 270DEG 50KT 3464 8624

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
809 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ALZ003-004-160145-
FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
809 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 805 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS GENERATED BY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CORINTH TO EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  VINA...DEMPSEY...
  ATWOOD...BELGREEN.
  HODGES...ROCKWOOD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8815 3458 8813 3456 8711 3455 8710
      3431 8711 3433 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 299DEG 17KT 3447 8804

RSB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
819 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  34.80N 86.97W
06/15/2011                   LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN IN DOWNTOWN ATHENS ON LUCAS FERRY ROAD.

0815 PM     HAIL             ATHENS                  34.80N 86.97W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON LUCAS FERRY ROAD.

&&

KWEBER