Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
701 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IN THE AREA...AND ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENT. FOR A LARGE PART...STORMS
HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT ADDITIONAL TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF KMEM AND MAY TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THIS LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE KMSL TERMINAL
AROUND 130-200Z AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING IN THE
AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS LINE WILL MISS THE SITE BUT EXPECT AT
LEAST VCTS AT THE SITE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT THIS LINE WILL REACH
KHSV SO HAVE SIMPLY KEPT THE CB GROUP THROUGH 04Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE NORTHERLY WINDS AT
BOTH SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011/
MONITORING MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE EVENING FORECAST.
CURRENTLY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BCM NMRS IN VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTS EWD. MULTIPLE
BANDS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES
ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE ZONE
APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP SW OF NASHVILLE INTO NERN MS...WHILE ANOTHER
RUNS FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE TO JASPER IN AL. THE RUC ATTEMPTS TO
ORGANIZE A MORE LINEAR MCS BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS THAT PROPAGATES
SEWD TOWARD THE I-20/59 CORRIDORS. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N
OF MEMPHIS...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS SERN MO INTO NRN AR.
THIS FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME TNGT...SO NOT EXPECTING A "SWEEPING"
CLEAN OF THE AIRMASS TNGT. SO WILL CARRY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS
IN OUR SERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT. SOME
PATCHY FG IS PSBL...BUT I HESITATE TO PLACE IT INTO THE FCST UNTIL
RAIN AREAS ARE BETTER DEFINED.

BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY ARE OUR BEST CHANCES...PERHAPS ONLY CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SEWD
THRU THE NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST SHOT ON FRIDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...I
HAVE CONCERNS THAT A CAP WL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THAT WILL RELEGATE
TSRA TO THE NE OF OUR FCST AREA. WL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO WARM EACH DAY...AND WITH A BIT MORE MUGGINESS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A STRONG 5H RIDGE BUILDS NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT FCST TEMPS IN THE M-U90S IN WRN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND U80S-L90S FURTHER E. RAIN CHANCES
MAY AGAIN INCREASE DAYS 8-9 AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND BREAKS DOWN A
BIT. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A TROF SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAVE ON OUR
HANDS CURRENTLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THUR NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...CCC
DISCUSSION...AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZED...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

KULA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     WRIGHT                  34.90N 87.99W
06/15/2011  M48.00 MPH       LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE WRIGHT TOWER
            BETWEEN WRIGHT AND WATERLOO.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
731 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             4 WSW SCOTTSBORO        34.65N 86.09W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
741 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE FLORENCE           34.75N 87.61W
06/15/2011  E59.00 MPH       COLBERT            AL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST TO 51 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT THE MUSCLE SHOALS
            ASOS SITE.

&&

KWEBER