Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
123 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREAWIDE AS OF 1800 UTC. DWPTS WERE
RUNNING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVY
CRITERIA ACROSS NW AL. CURRENT HEAT ADVY RUNS UNTIL 0000 UTC FOR THE
NW...AND SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT/HUMIDITY HAS ALSO YIELDED A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTN
WITH CAPE VALUES AOA 3 KJ/KG.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEAK BUT DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
WRN KY/SRN IL. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S/SE WITH
TIME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHING INTO FAR
NRN TN. ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. CLOSER TO HOME...ISOLD CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE SHOALS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS WITH ANY
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE
OVERHEAD. THUS...THE OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN QUITE WARM AND
WE'LL ONCE AGAIN BE FLIRTING WITH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-65. HAVE TRENDED ABOVE SHORT RANGE MOS GUIDANCE AND MORE TOWARD
PERSISTENCE OVERALL FOR TEMPS.

AS WE LOOK TOWARD THE EXTENDED...SOME SLIGHT CHANGES OF NOTE ARE IN
THE OFFING. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING A WEAKNESS IN THE
U/L RIDGE (TROPICAL FEATURE?) ACROSS THE SERN US BY MIDWEEK. THIS
FEATURE...AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
(PARTICULARLY IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME) WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE/MASS
CONVERGENCE. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLNS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE
AS WELL...SO HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ATTM GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. OTRW...CONTINUED TO TREND ABOVE ENSEMBLE TEMPS AND MORE
TOWARD (OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE) OPNL NUMBERS. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE
TO RUN 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD END BY 01Z...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM HAZE IS EXPECTED. LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM DENSER
HAZE/FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KMSL DURING THE LATE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  97  70  98  70 /  20   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        70  98  70  98  70 /  20   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      68  95  69  93  70 /  20   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  94  67  95  68 /  20  10   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   67  95  70  94  68 /  20   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    66  94  65  93  66 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE.

TN...NONE.
&&

15/CBD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-060000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. THOSE PERFORMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE IT EASY...
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND REMAIN AWARE OF THE DANGERS OF HEAT
PRODUCED AILMENTS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES HOVERING IN THE LOW 100S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ALZ003-051900-
FRANKLIN-
130 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRUCE PINE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
 RURAL SOUTHEAST FRANKLIN COUNTY...EAST OF SPRUCE PINE AND PHIL
 CAMPBELL.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8771 3439 8779 3451 8763 3444 8753
      3443 8753 3431 8754 3431 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 317DEG 10KT 3439 8764

RSB

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