Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST THU JAN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EASE FURTHER...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
WEATHER TO THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT BECAME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ONCE IT PAST KAUAI ABOUT
8 PM HST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE
NORTH...AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WERE STUCK OVER WESTERN OAHU DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING FINALLY
MOVED RAPIDLY EAST NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE VALLEY
ISLE AND LANAI. THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN RATHER QUIET DURING THE PAST
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME SHOWERS DID TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND DURING THE EVENING BUT THEY WERE SHORT
LIVED. WE ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY OVER MAUI COUNTY TO WORK ITS WAY
THERE LATER TODAY.

THE DISSIPATING OR DEPARTING FRONT WILL NOT HELP THE CAUSE OF
DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WE MAY
HAVE LOST SOME...NOT ALL...OF THE DYNAMICS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PULLS OUT. THE GFS MODEL...AT LEAST...IS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH MOISTURE
EXTENDING TO ABOVE 30000 FEET. GIVEN A WELL SATURATED GROUND...ANY
MORE SHOWERS...AND IT DOES NOT NEED TO BE HEAVY...CAN CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HENCE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS WILL HAS BEEN RENEWED AS PER REASONING NOTED ABOVE.

THE POSITIVE PART IS THE WINDS. THE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ABATED. SO FOR THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS...ALL WIND RELATED ADVISORY/WARNING ARE CANCELED. THE WINDS
WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY INTO THE WEEKEND AND TRENDING
LIGHTER INTO FRIDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY OAHU SUNDAY EVENING...MAUI COUNTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...WE ARE FORECASTING
FOR ONLY SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ARE CALLING FOR THE RETURN OF TRADES THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
OR ONCE THIS FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING IS CANCEL FOR THE  KAUAI/KAIWI/PAILOLO CHANNELS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. DITTO FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINING HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SWELL WISE...A NEW LARGE WEST NORTHWEST SWELL IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURF HEIGHTS NEARING THE WARNING THRESHOLDS ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE ROUGH...SHORT
PERIOD SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...FROM THE STIFF
SOUTHWEST WINDS...WILL BE EASING OFF THURSDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...
AIRMET REMAINS UP FOR MT OBSC OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AIRMET ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD ICING FROM KAUAI TO MAUI...AND FOR MOD
TURB FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. TSRA ARE NOW MOVING THRU MAUI COUNTY...
BRINGING PREVAILING MVFR CONDS AND BRIEF IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE...AS TSRA
HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT...LEAVING BEHIND AREAS OF STRATIFORM -RA/RA
AND TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VIS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE BY TONIGHT FOR THE REST
OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT. TURB
MAY ALSO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE A BIT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY
FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TO
UNTIL 6 PM TODAY BUT IS CANCELED FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT AND ELSEWHERE.

THE GALE WARNING IS CANCELED EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY FOR THE
KAUAI KAIWI AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AND OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELED AS WELL FOR THE REMAINING
HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...HARRISON