Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Honolulu, HI

475 
WWHW50 PHFO 131110
SVSHFO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
110 AM HST THU JAN 13 2011

HIC009-131117-
/O.EXP.PHFO.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110113T1115Z/
MOLOKAI IN MAUI-
110 AM HST THU JAN 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF MOLOKAI IN MAUI
COUNTY EXPIRES AT 115 AM HST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED...AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO AFFECT MOLOKAI...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. 

LAT...LON 2130 15699 2108 15694 2101 15738 2118 15742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 257DEG 25KT 2115 15714

$$

BIRCHARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JAN 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSETTLE WEATHER  WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS SETS IN. THIS IS BASE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS HAVE RESULTED
WITH A GOOD BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALREADY...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAD
A SHORT BREAK WITH THE HEAVY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS HAS
ENDED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS HAS STARTED...AFFECTING THE
WESTERN HALF OF OAHU. MAUI AND LANAI HAVE JUST JOINED THE MIX AS A
SEPARATE BAND HAS DEVELOPED THERE. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS THE
CULPRIT...RESULTING IN THESE LINES/BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION POSE A GOOD CHANCE
OF FLASH FLOODING TO THESE ISLANDS.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A FEW MILES WEST OF THE NA PALI COAST
OF KAUAI...MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ONCE IT REACHES KAUAI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FIRST
WEATHER ELEMENT TO WEAKEN WILL BE THE STIFF SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO EASE OFF INTO THE MODERATE RANGE THURSDAY AND TO LIGHT
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS MAY TURN EVEN LIGHTER FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AS THE FRONT FALLS APART...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE BIG ISLAND. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY IN EFFECT
INTO THURSDAY. WE ANTICIPATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO END
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVES THE AREA. THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KAUAI/KAIWI/PAILOLO
CHANNELS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS. THE GALE
WARNING ALSO COVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS.

SWELL WISE...A NEW LARGE WEST NORTHWEST SWELL IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURF HEIGHTS NEARING THE WARNING THRESHOLDS ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE ROUGH...SHORT
PERIOD SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...FROM THE STIFF
SOUTHWEST WINDS...WILL BE EASING OFF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET REMAINS UP FOR MT OBSC OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOLOKAI. AIRMET ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD ICING
FROM OAHU TO KAUAI...AND FOR MOD TURB FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONT TO MAKE FOR LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDS...
ESPECIALLY FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...AS PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS WILL CONT
THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT...BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND MOST AREAS OF OTHER ISLANDS EXCEPT WEST AND
SOUTH SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU AND MAUI.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI KAIWI AND PAILOLO
CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL REMAINING
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...HARRISON